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$13.52 -3.67 (-21.35%)
10/10/2008 4:00 PM

Pan American Silver Corp. (USA) (PAAS)

CAPS Rating:
****

Engaged in the exploration for, and the acquisition, development and operation of, silver producing properties and assets.

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Avatar EV38 (99.26) Submitted: 6/04/07 5:13 PM : Outperform Start Price: $29.89 PAAS Score: -14.55

Silver is on a clear ascending triangle on a two year chart to $30 in the next few months, and is on an upward trend to at least 15 in the next couple of weeks. Even though I'm not a fan of PAAS as far as fundamentals go and what they have in the ground with respect to rival companies, I cannot deny the clear correlation to the silver price and therefore must long it again. Good call option play

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Avatar LeoFender (< 20) Submitted: 9/04/07 2:27 PM

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I just don't understand where the $30 number comes from? Or why we're banking on 15 in the next few weeks? It seems to me that Silver is still rather expensive, I guess I don't follow.

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Avatar TMFSinchiruna (< 20) Submitted: 12/31/07 4:29 PM

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Leo... silver might seem expensive, but you have to dig deeper to see that it's actually amazingly cheap right now. If you believe that in time markets work out the true value of things, then the ratio of the price of gold to the price of silver becomes significant. Gold is in the 830s right now, which also sounds very high until we consider that the USDollar in which it's denominated has declined more than 30% in 2007. There are all sorts of great fundamental reasons why gold is on a tear, and you can send me a message if you want more on that, but here I'm talking about silver, and the value of silver is best understood in relation to the valie of gold. Going from prehistory through to the modern era, the long-term mean ratio of gold to silver price was between 8 and 12, and only raised to about 16:1 for the last few centuries. Right now the ratio is about 56:1, even though nothing fundamental has changed in the ratio of the two metals' availability in the ground. Taking the long view, the ratio is bound to restore itself to historical averages. That's where we get numbers like $50 for silver from... from the assumption that the real value of silver as proven by the long-term behaviour of the markets is about 16:1, and we don't approach that ratio at current gold prices until silver passes $50.

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