Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (ADR) (PBR)

toshimelonhead (83.86) Submitted: 3/05/08 6:32 PM

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What don't you like about those numbers? Those are outstanding.

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scottidog (21.33) Submitted: 3/05/08 7:47 PM

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I believe the valuation factors, P/E, P/S, and P/CF showed it was a bit overvalued. In the model I run, the ROE, ROA, profit margin, growth, and PEG are without a doubt outstanding, but were not enough to justify the valuation.

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zo6racer (95.47) Submitted: 4/19/08 12:42 AM

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If you are going to make a comparison, at least compare it to its industry peers. And even looking at these numbers, what is not to like??

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scottidog (21.33) Submitted: 4/19/08 1:22 PM

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You could be right. I had a terrible week in PBR this past week. I was up nicely going in to the week. I could also be dead wrong, it is bound to happen to any investor and I could be wrong in this stock. However...

In this forum, I am seeing if I can accruately predict any given stock's performance relative to the S&P 500, not industry peers, over 3 - 5 years. As of 3/5, it appeared to me that relative to the S&P 500, PBR was overvalued.

The factors listed above are not equally weighted. I have more weight on some factors and less on others. I will change them if I see that the market has shifted. For example, I recently dropped the P/CF factor since I saw it had little correlation to a stock's price movement.

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PTRio (84.79) Submitted: 5/09/08 7:12 PM

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The one thing which gives PBR an advantage, and justifies its P/E and P/S is the fact it is ADDING to proven reserves, not subtracting as is the case with other oil majors. In fact, Brasil will likely become one of the, if not THE energy center for the next century. Not just because of petroleum, but also based on cane base ethanol, in which PBR is developing a growing stake.

While the oil PBR will be extracting beginning in 2009 is challenging and expensive, it is also light crude and at $200/barrel it will be very profitable. At 85/barrell, in fact, it will be profitable.

This is the stock I recommend to friends who want to fiance their childrens college and grad school education with a $10,000 or less investment now, it should easily accomplish that goal in 10 years or less.

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BigDogBlog2 (90.13) Submitted: 5/12/08 5:54 PM

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*** Take a peek at 1Q 2008 today !! Beating the consensus soundly and no where but up :-)

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xxauggyxx (38.43) Submitted: 5/19/08 3:14 PM

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I just have to reply because i see this post so often and it keeps driving me nuts. All those numbers and ratios appear quite positive to me, especially the P/E that is only a third higher than the index combined with a long term growth rate more than double the market. Call me crazy but when those numbers were current the stock looked like a bargain to me. I can understand if scotti misinterpreted something in the numbers but who keeps recommending the post (6)??? Nothing here would point to shorting the stock in my opinion.

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waynehe (93.77) Submitted: 6/03/08 10:57 AM

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The data speaks for itself, opposite to your bear view. PEG=23.6/29.8 = 0.79 vs. 17.7/13.0=1.36.
I am long on this one.

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