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TMFBreakerDave (99.12) Submitted: 6/12/06 4:56 AM : Start Price: $19.23 PBW Score: -19.01
I like this ETF as a pure play on the growth of alternative energy over the next decade. It's kind of a "buy-and-forget" investment. It won't perform as spectacularly as the actual winners in this field... but then again, buying PBW keeps you from having to "know" (or guess!) the winners in this field. We're still at an oil-reliant, too-early stage to know the winners in alternative energy. I definitely have some companies here that I like, but what I appreciate about PBW is that I don't feel like I have to be right to make money. I can own the basket.And yes, I do believe just as biotech was a good 20-year bet with an ETF 10 years ago, I think alternative energy also represents a good bet over the next 10 years. It's not as much of a sure thing as a biotech ETF, but I think this is certainly an appropriate holding in any medium-to-more-than-that risk portfolio.
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TMFEldrehad (99.99) Submitted: 6/13/06 12:26 AM
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Well Dave, I didn't know this alternative energy ETF existed until I was scanning your CAPS profile, and thanks for the heads-up! I can now add another underperform pick to my growing CAPS pick list.The entire alternative energy field has a huge uphill battle ahead of it that I think most if its fans are grossly underestimating. Fossil fuel production and distribution is operating atop an enormous already existing infrastructure. The alternative energy upstarts have to pit their total costs against fossil fuel's incremental costs in order to be economically viable. The electricity generators (solar and wind) of the bunch will have a much easier time of it as they can leverage the existing distribution infrastructure - but it's still not going to be easy ousting those companies operating from a sunk asset model. As far as fuel cells go, it's a much, much tougher hill to climb, and I say darn near impossible in the short or even intermediate (10 to 20 years) term. Furthermore, in the event that the economics do prove viable, watch the competition get very heavy very quickly. After all, we're talking about a commodity business. Electrons are electrons.A commodity business, with a huge sunk asset base in the hands of the competition, and rather rich valuations across the board relative to current earnings in the alternative energy field - it all adds up to underperformance for the forseeable future in this Fool's opinion.
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kattanfuad (< 20) Submitted: 8/25/06 5:27 PM
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I fully agree
TMFEldrehad (99.99) Submitted: 10/24/06 11:03 AM
Hey Dave...Just when are you going to end the pain on this one? I mean really, you jump on the anti-ethanol bandwagon calling thumbs down on VSE and AVR, but you keep letting this one ride?C'mon, switch direction and call thumbs down, all the cool kids are doing it... besides, your player rating will thank you!
TMFEldrehad (99.99) Submitted: 10/30/07 10:39 AM
In response to your recent comment on my PBW pitch:"Russell, did we get a chance to talk about PBW anytime yet this fall? ;) ;)"Ummm... well, no. And of course a little good-natured taunting on your part here is well-deserved and quite Foolish!In my defense, I would like to point to my pitch reply above, wherein I did note that if any of the alternative energy plays held any promise it was solar. While I still think many of the solar valuations are rich, as of this writing I'm the one that's eating a bit of crow. :-)But hey, I've so far been dead-bang right on both ethanol and fuel cells. Two out of three ain't all bad, is it?Fool on!-Russell
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