Peregrine Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:PPHM)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company with a portfolio of clinical stage and pre-clinical product candidates using monoclonal antibodies for the treatment of cancer and viral diseases.

Recs

9
Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.77) Submitted: 8/10/2012 1:52:52 AM : Underperform Start Price: $2.24 PPHM Score: +26.58

Peregrine has gotten a lot of mileage from their phase IIb trial of bavituxumab in second-line advanced NSCLC showing a doubling of ORR from 8% in control to 15% and 18%. They're now a four-bagger and counting from the June low of 0.43, and predictably I bailed out of my green thumb with plenty of points left on the table. Now, of course, the upward momentum is pure speculation in the usual game of baby biotech chicken. Ultimately, we know that ends up with someone splattered on the pavement.

Red flag one is that bavituxumab has been around for like, forever. Longer than I've been following biotech. That's a long time for a miracle drug to reveal its miraculous nature.

Red flag two is that PFS was only 4.5 months vs 3 months for standard of care. Better than nothing, but not necessarily predictive of prolonged survival. Ultimately a drug has to treat patients, not CT scans.

Red flag three is that the company released very little of the data from the trial. Statistical significance?

Red flag four is that the share price didn't start taking off until a month after the data release in May. Trial data doesn't get around by Pony Express and smoke signals. The delayed reaction reeks of manipulation and speculation.

Red flag five is courtesy of Adam Feuerstein, who points out that Peregrine has made a business model out of selling stock through unannounced ATM financings for years. If they've got something so great, why are they selling stock and diluting shareholders as hard as they can all the way up?

If you don't want to miss that kind of dilution and you can't bring yourself to pore through the quarterly SEC filings, just remember to click that cash flow link under Financials on Yahoo Finance. They can dilute without telling you in PR, but they can't hide their Sale Purchase of Stock.

Report this Post 12 Replies
Member Avatar TruffelPig (< 20) Submitted: 8/13/2012 8:37:14 PM
Recs: 0

Couple points:

a) When you voted with your green thumb all your counter arguments were valid already.
b) An immune treatment is likely better stand alone. Conventional chemo is extremely toxic which could actually hide many beneficial effects of Bavi.
c) So far stock is going straight up. Too early to short technically.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.77) Submitted: 8/14/2012 7:33:43 PM
Recs: 3

When I voted with my green thumb the price was 0.50. Price matters. Let's see the OS.

Member Avatar TruffelPig (< 20) Submitted: 8/30/2012 7:53:07 PM
Recs: 0

The $30 million loan should debunk the ATM for a year at least. also, I don't think they would have gotten this loan without anything in sight :) - partner, where are you ;P

Definitely, PPHM's position is getting stronger ahead of Sept. 7.

Member Avatar sidiling (97.28) Submitted: 9/24/2012 10:32:45 AM
Recs: 0

lol nice pick

Member Avatar goldminingXpert (29.45) Submitted: 9/24/2012 6:38:44 PM
Recs: 2

Given TruffelPig's affinity for getting run over by Chinese frauds, why am I not surprised that he managed to drink the kool aid of an out and out biotech fraud rather than one of the many merely dubious biotech schemes? TruffelPig, hats off to you man, you're a contrary indicator like no other!!!

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.77) Submitted: 9/24/2012 7:19:15 PM
Recs: 3

As I said, someone had to end up splattered on the pavement. Might as well be TruffelPig. Now he'll never get the chance to find out it's actually spelled truffle.

Member Avatar TruffelPig (< 20) Submitted: 9/25/2012 7:35:04 AM
Recs: 0

@ZZ: I know that its spelled Truffle - but since I am German I made it a bit German like in Truffel (there should be an ue). Anyhow, I sold my shares at $5 and $4 on the way up and yesterday took a ride from 82 cents to $1.4. I did not get splattered.

The outcome was NOT predictable by you or me actually and you just gloat because you were lucky. It is funny that no one gloated when it was over $5 but was sitting silently in the corner. No one could predict third party labeling mistakes but I admit it is VERY irritating.

@GoldminingXpert - I made one mistake in my real life PF with CCME last year, yes. The contrarian indicator is up 25% this year alone in his PF thanks to stocks like AAPL, IPGP, ECYT, and yes, PPHM.

Member Avatar sidiling (97.28) Submitted: 9/25/2012 10:47:23 AM
Recs: 0

Yeah 82% pick accuracy is all luck

Member Avatar TruffelPig (< 20) Submitted: 9/25/2012 11:02:33 AM
Recs: 0

Some may take this serious - I use it as a list of stuff I follow. The overlap between this game and my portfolio is there but there are a lot of differences that come from:

a) Investments I buy in portions. For example, I followed IPGP down from 50 to 33 (grinding my teeth admittedly) and sold chunks on the way back up. Current position 70% up and on the house. You just can not do that in CAPS.

b) Trading is restricted to a week time interval.

c) Clicking on CAPS doesn't cost or gains me money. I am an old grunt so I don't care for ego much.

d) The starting date is important too. I bet you look pretty good when you started March 2009 with all green thumbs. In contrast, when you started last year like me you had an uphill battle.

Anyhow, where did I write pick accuracy is luck?

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 9/25/2012 11:27:32 AM
Recs: 0

Trufflepig, I believe ZZlangerhans did accurately predict what actually happened. It's clearly contined in several of his points, including that after all these years, we are now to expect a miracle. The places PPHM "pharmed" out their testing are notorious for these issues, but not unexpected for a company with it's history. Calling the call "luck" is disregarding his accuracy and focus on biopharms.

No, I didn't seeanyone crowing at $5. It was all typical patience by those who follow biopharms. You might do well on non-biopharms, but the postings you made here and on SA clearly showed that you were in deeper with PPHM than just a trading vehicle.

As far as starting in 2009 versus today, there has been plenty of time to make up ground for those who do want to play this as a game. You are pitted against the S&P. Picking a stock in March of 2009 such as Kraft did me no good against a 40% rise in the S&P. There are opportunities both directions.

I think CAPS makes a good paper, note system ,and a good place to work on theories and sectors. zzlangerhans keeps his play as an open notebook and isn't concerned with his score either, other than in fun against particular biopharms. If you want to play biopharms here or in real life, his notes/comments are worth diving into. If you want to jump in on pitches and offer opinions they are welcome, but don't be surprised if "gloating/defending" go both ways.

Good luck.

Member Avatar TruffelPig (< 20) Submitted: 9/25/2012 2:18:09 PM
Recs: 0

Somehow my reply didn't make it. So in short, I respect ZZLangerhans opinion and the "luck" I referred to was simply only the single one event that killed PPHM stock. No one could have predicted a labeling error - not sure how often that happens in clinical trials but probably not all that often. That was a big one and it changed my opinion on PPHM 100%. Obviously ZZ was correct in his assessment and I was wrong. Also, he followed exactly his 10 point assessment which is excellent.

Actually, I should thank him because I did take profit instead of trying to ride this one endlessly up. So hereby I do it.

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 9/25/2012 4:07:12 PM
Recs: 0

Good comment Truffle, but I still don't believe it boils down to just a labeling error. There is much more here in the case of PPHM. Integrity was included in ZZ's assessment in the challenge to the results, the lack of published data, and the overall history. The entire run-up of PPHM was suspect and the "labeling" error was just how it expressed itself. Yes, one has to extend years of behavior/patterns and sometimes they do break upside, but it's rare. Glad you make some coin! Hope it was enough to buy some "truffles/truffels". Even the bad eggs can toss off a few coins to the quick, if they're wary. Fool helps with that!

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