$16.61
0.18 (+1.10%)
Rambus, Inc. (RMBS)
CAPS Rating:
The Company designs, develops and licenses chip interface technologies that are foundational to nearly all digital electronics products.
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The price movement, technical analysis, and message board activities of Rambus have all the hallmarks of a stock that is being pumped to dump in my opinion.Consider for a moment that during the week ended 12/12/2008, the stock price had exceeded 160% gains from two weeks prior, and all the spin doctoring pumps on most message boards are screaming "MOOON!", yet during that same time frame, a RAMBUS INSIDER sold shares instead of buying them. I'll repeat. *SOLD SHARES*Consider that during this same time frame, the Relative Strength (Wilder, 8, --- 60 day, 60 minute chart) has DETERIORATED on each successive upward bump of the stock price. This quantifies as a DE FACTO NEGATIVE divergence. Negative divergences are not good, and indicate a trend change is coming. For any "expert" analyst to "Upgrade" a stock on the heals of such divergence, is paramount to showing an underlying collusive or "paid for" interest in said upgrade, and is UNETHICAL at best, IN MY OPINION. There are many other TA indications that don't bode well, but considering complexity and length of this message I'll leave this example simple.Also, anyone watching real time trading on this issue will confirm that over the last two weeks, just when the stock price and technical picture are shouting "DROP COMING" the market making "swindler" will quickly jack up and snap the stock price higher a few percent on a VERY limited number of shares when the technical picture is showing a completely DIFFERENT perspective altogether...( a SELL IT NOW perspective) and then the dissemination of shares at a higher price point continues...I find it telling that these levels are then "magically" sustained using 100 share trades, which we all know, could easily as well be 1 share (one share) trades passed through by this same market maker as they wait for dumb money to purchase the higher price level.. Time and Sales data will show 100 share trades regardless of if being 1 or 100 shares were traded.... again, as we all know. Also telling are the phantom large block bids that appear for just a second and then get withdrawn before anyone can actually sell a block into them. Again, the large phantom bids are just another ploy to incite dumb money to chase the ASK -- in my opinion.Personally, I don't believe these maneuvers can sustain, as anyone that has ever witnessed similar trading and technicals will confirm. I perceive these price moves as being bogus, suspect, and part of some entities efforts to pump it and dump it at the highest possible price before it craters on a judgment that runs contrary to the spin the boiler rooms are spewing out at this time.Furthermore, were it possible to actually get the SEC to audit the trades made by the latest shill to "UPGRADE" this stock, I believe they would find that same pundit was not buying the stock, but was selling it short just prior to and after the "upgrade". If further investigation were exercised, I believe that the parties that HIRED the pundit to post an "UPGRADE" would be found out to be shorting the stock as well. Again, my opinion.I conclude by stating that I think it would be in order for persons that bought RAMBUS on December 15, 2008 (today) based on the pump "upgrades" issued today, to take an active stance in a class action lawsuit brought against said alleged "Upgrade Pump Artists" when the stock reveals it's TRUE nature and tanks to hell in a hand-basket next week. I think any further upward momentum on this security is limited, it might fill the gap near $14.80, but will fall after that.I consider pumped stocks of this nature a CRIME, but understand full well that manipulation and corruption rules Wall Street as equally as they do our own Government. -- (consider Madoff, Blagojevich, et al)In my honest and humblest OPINION.
My family has been following this one stock for over a decade....literally. We've seen it go from $425 to $5 a share. Ups and downs for years. They've won ever single court case during this time period and have REFUSED to budge because their technology was stolen. I understand that your reply is purely a financial analysis and not a complete and technical reply. If you were more familiar with the companies history and those of us who are, you'd know that come Jan. 17th, when they go to court again, it could be for the last time. My father literally had a heart attack and died at his computer viewing this Rambus portfolio. Hence, we've continued to follow it for 8-years. Please educate yourself further on the stock, because every judge has sided with Rambus for almost a decade now. They've been holding on and so have the faithful. It's totally a buy, and will continue to go up especially right before Jan.17. People are buying and selling a stock that they know little about, but when they finally win, they'll have HUGE royalty payments due to them and exclusive right to the technology in so many of the gadgets and video gaming technologies that it'll make your head spin. Time will tell and it won't be long now......
Interesting take! As it mostly references real-time activity, I am unable to confirm or deny, but I have no reason to doubt your assumptions. I, too, believe Mr.Market is corrupt and such activity should be investigated and prosecuted to the extreme.However, your actions do not make sense. If you recognize that the market is manipulated, you should be trading in-line with the heavies (those manipulating the stock). Outing the activity is fine, but betting against it is a losing strategy. You have no idea when the questionable activity (upward mojo) will end. Not to mention, the effects of the manipulation you describe encourage the positive mojo...http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RMBS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p16839574392...as the chart suggests.If you look at a chart of many years, you will see many reasons to be bullish on RMBS when it dips below $10-ps (regardless of market manipulation). The Rambus "story" has been long and torturous, but anyone willing to trade the events has been well rewarded. My condolences to the other poster. I think it is great that you have continued to follow the Rambus story. It has been very interesting and I hope management rewards the longterm buy&hold types who have followed this story for sooo long. If Rambus management is fair, as the Foolish article suggests, shareholders should ultimately find satisfaction.Oh, concerning the Insider selling -- given their position & time with this company (the founders and decades), the current economic conditions, and the unpredictable influence of legal decisions on RMBS -- I wouldn't read much in to it. And you should note all the insiders who have been buying.Tye
Insightful piece, more so because what you predicted seems to have happened. Thanks for pointing this out.
Nice pick, got any other insights to share?