Rosetta Genomics Ltd. (USA) (NASDAQ:ROSG)
CAPS Rating:
The Company is seeking to develop and commercialize new diagnostic and therapeutic products based on a recently discovered group of genes known as microRNAs.
The Company is seeking to develop and commercialize new diagnostic and therapeutic products based on a recently discovered group of genes known as microRNAs.
Recs
This is the best speculative opportunity I have ever seen since I have started investing in stocks 7 years ago. Rosetta Genomics had been knocked down close to insolvency because it couldn't sell its technology. For starters its technology was way ahead of its time and is now coming into the lime-light as targeted cancer theraputics are the next revolution of the battle against cancer. Rosetta genomics can help pin-point an early detection or probability of certain types of cancers and owns 40% of the intellectual property rights in the genomics space. Rosetta Genomics deals with micro Rna's and has recently been approved by Medicare to cover its Mets2 testing. This will expose the test to 45 million medicare participants and 200k patients in direct need of the CUP (cancer of unkown primary test). Rosetta Genomics is in the right space at the right time as Genomics is heating up across the board. ROSG has also recently raised enough money to avoid bankruptcy and to buy time to build its new business model. ROSG at $10/share is sporting a 24m market cap. Most of Rosetta's peers are at least double in size. Based on Rosetta's intellectual property rights and its new approval I'm guessing it will be a 10 bagger in 5 years.
Is this the first biotech you have ever invested in?
ROSG has just come onto my radar now, and I must admit that I share some of your enthusiasm. Not just because of the long-term potential, which you do a fairly good job of describing. But also because the extreme volatility of this stock, combined with the fact that it's sitting near its bottom support points, suggests that there could be some significant short term opportunities, regardless of the long-term potential.
My take on ROSG is actually that NOBODY knows what the hell to do with it. Like you said, it's a company with a very real technological opportunity, with an active sales force in the US marketplace (which is a lot better than most biotechs). And, like you said, it's very much near insolvency. Indeed, since you wrote your commentary, the stock price has plummeted from $10.00 to $4.00, and thus the 24 million market cap you suggested is now far less than that. And then again, there's that nice technology, and that active sales force.
So who the hell knows what to do with this stock? Clearly not the market: the stock has fallen below $5.00 four times in the past 12 months, only to rebound by 200-400%, within 45 days, on each and every occasion. It's crazy...in the last 12 months the stock has literally been priced at $20.00, then $5.00, then $10.00, then $2.50, then $17.00, and now $4.40. Talk about holy volatility Batman!
So I agree with you: this is a super speculative stock in both senses of the word: it's potentially a super stock, and it's definitely super speculative. But the fact remains that at current levels, combined with its extreme volatility, the chances that the stock - at some point in the next 4 months - provides the savvy swing-trader with a profit opportunity between 25%-200% is very high. And so while I'm hardly going to bet my farm on ROSG, I do think that there could be worse places to put a small, speculative bet.
Certainly seems like we had the right idea, huh vanguard?