Repros Therapeutics, Inc. (RPRX)

Kvedarna (98.71) Submitted: 1/04/08 8:56 PM

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I am curious on what basis you make the forecast of 'down 2 to 7.' Let me give you the bullish case: At any given time, 9 million women have serious enough symptoms to seek medical help for fibroid tumors. Annually, 600k of them have surgery, most of them hysterectomy, ending the patient's child bearing stage. Proellex, from RPRX, is a specific progesterone receptor moderator (see Wikipedia), which means that it causes the body to change biomedical pathways 'down there.' All the data to date indicates that Proellex may be able to eliminate all but a few of the painful surgeries now prescribed for this ailment.
Similarly, Proellex appears to be useful in treating endometriosis, also 'down there.' The potential market is for several hundred thousand patients on the therapy at, say, $200 a month, or $20 million per month for each 100,000 patients. The pipeline for Big Pharma is thin enough that a drug such as this would fit nicely in any of several portfolios. Especially at Schering AG or the joint venture TAP ie Takeda/Abbott Pharma, based in Illinois, which was developing Asoprisnil, a competing drug, but ran into difficulties. At the time, the successes and problems of Asoprisnil were enough to drive the shares of German Schering up and down by significant dollar/Euro amounts.

More on Androxal when I have more time. Thank you. I think the valuation on Proellex alone can justify a stock price several times the present $9 level. Perhaps many times that amount.

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