Repros Theraup (NASDAQ:RPRX)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of new drugs to treat hormonal and reproductive system disorders.


Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 7/27/2011 1:23:29 AM : Underperform Start Price: $6.39 RPRX Score: +13.61

Repros has resuscitated itself through the very instrument of their downfall, Proellex. In June 2009 the share price collapsed, taking about 120 points of my CAPS score with it, with evidence of hepatotoxicty at Proellex doses of 12.5 mg. A year later the company began testing lower doses of Proellex and claimed evidence of activity at doses as low as 1 mg. Despite those claims, the stock reached a post-split low of 1.14 last November. However, between December and March the share price nearly quintupled although the catalysts of that rapid rise are difficult to ascertain. For example, in February the share price shot from 1.4 to 3.5 after company reported positive data for vaginally-administered Proellex in a rabbit model. Really?

Proellex is now being studied in cohorts of increasing doses to determine if there is a level at which the drug can consistently induce amenorrhea without causing hepatotoxicity. They recently began enrolling a 9 mg cohort after no hepatotoxicity was observed in the 6 mg cohort, while 7/8 women appear to have ceased menstruating. The fifth and final cohort using a 12 mg dose will likely be completed by the end of the year.

I do give Repros credit for resuscitating their Proellex program and their stock, but there are a lot of things that can go wrong here and the amplitude of the increase in share price is unwarranted. Amenorrhea is only a signal of Proellex efficacy, which will ultimately be measured by alleviation of symptoms of uterine fibroids and endometriosis. That's a long road of trials which will require much more money than Repros currently has, which means a lot of dilution in the near future. That's also a lot of patients receiving drug with a lot of opportunities for hepatoxicity to reassert itself and give the stock its second 95% haircut. Meanwhile, the company continues to punt around their low-T drug Androxal in mid-stage trials as they have for years, but I have very low expectations for the long term potential of that compound.

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