$17.99 -0.59 (-3.18%)
12/3/2009 4:01 PM

The Ryland Group, Inc. (RYL)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

A homebuilding and mortgage-finance company. The Company consists of six segments: four geographically-determined homebuilding regions, financial services, and corporate.

Recs

5
Member Avatar dexion10 (27.94) Submitted: 12/22/2008 12:09:25 AM : Underperform Start Price: $14.97 RYL Score: +3.23

1. Ryland has used aggressive accounting to value its book of raw land and will have further write downs as time goes on.

2.RYL is trading above its "inflated" book value

3. Ryland also has significant leverage $700M+.... this limits there ability to buy distressed land and lower their cost basis.

4. RYL will not be a profitable as new builders / legacy builders buying distressed land.

5. National builders are all crowding the same second tier markets to replace the decline in demand in formerly "hot markets"

6. RYL is slowing it's building to match demand... but less building = less revenue and SGA is not falling so gross margins will be low for the foreseeable future.

7. IN OTHER WORDS RYL IS DEAD MONEY AT BEST

8. Sales volumes are so slow that write down models will require bigger write downs from all builders

9. Homebuilding is a pretty lousy business unless you do ONE THING WELL... BUY CHEAP LAND. Multi-decade charts of homebuilding stocks validate this view... intrinsic value was not created at a rate that lifted stocks for 5 -8 year periods at a time!

10. less people looking qualified to buy homes nationally because of foreclosures and poor credit / income

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Member Avatar OtherOracleOfOMA (99.60) Submitted: 12/23/2008 12:35:16 PM
Recs: 1 Rec This

Man, I must be getting old - anyone else remember the good ole' days, back when "aggressive accounting" was known by the more accurate, less euphemistic title of "fraudulent accounting?"

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