Sirtris Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SIRT.DL)

JohnLamb999 (< 20) Submitted: 1/11/08 12:54 AM : Start Price: $14.25 SIRT.DL Score: -58.30

I was in 2 minds as to go bearish or bullish, but perssuaded myself of the bear case.





The bullish side is that these guys may be to market with a new mechanism for treating diabetes with possibly some obesity benefit as well. IF they thread the needle of decent efficacy, an acceptable safety profile and a well behaved compound, they could hit the big time. The hype around this is it is based on resveratrol which is thought to be the component of red wine (and anything made from red grapes including the skin), that protects against various aspects of metabolic disease. It is thought to target an enzyme, Sirt1, that is implicated in longevity and in mice is linked to obesity and diabetes.





The bear pitches are - 1. resveratrol may not be the only or even the most active ingredient in red wine and these effects may be mediated by more targets than SIRT1. 2. even though SIRT1 has now been shown to have intriguing effects in mice this may or may not translate to humans. 3. most new mechanisms are not efficacious and/or have mechanism based safety issues. 4. even if the mechanism is good, it is simply not that easy to make a great compound that behaves predictably in people. To do so is an expensive, time consuming endevour best done by experienced folks. Generally small companies, do not have deep pockets, rush to market and don't have a lot of experience, which results in a higher failure rate.





Finally it should be said that big companies are entirely aware of this information since it has been widely discussed in the literature. If they think it intriguing enough they will be on the hunt for small molecules as well. If for example encouraging Phase II results are reported later this year they will be on the bandwagon and may even get to market before SIRT (the company) does or if not shortly there-after.





All in all it is a tough game and hard to win, so the odds favour a poor outcome for SIRT even if the biology is right.

Report this Post Replies: 1 | Reply | Permalink