$26.02
0.20 (+0.77%)
UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF)
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I called it exactly right the last two times, bouncing in and out of this pick. Let's see if I can do it again. As I see it, this pick (one of a collection of Short ETFs) is due for a rise as the rest of the market sours on Geithner's plans. The market is still well-overvalued, and needs to fall 25% more (down to about 5500 on the DJIA) to even begin to come in line with the traditional P/E ratios of bear markets. It's not going to fall all that way in one fell swoop (hopefully not, for that would really freak out those who've not been paying attention), but I do anticipate it oscillating and trending downwards. Until that "bottom" is finally reached, however, I intend to make some points (and some money on limited ETF selections) during this time.
I may be a little early on this one (just like the last time I played this swing), but from what I'm seeing in the Slow Stochastics regarding this ETF, it is due for a turnaround, a rise from this point. I'm hoping this will happen in the next 2-3 weeks, if not sooner.
To me, it's clear from the Slow Stochastics of some big ETFs that they are due for a turn-around. Take a look at TZA, ERY, BGZ, QID, SDD, SDK, RWM, SFK, and SJF, to name a few. All are below the 20% "oversold" line, some below the 10% line, meaning they are more likely to rise than fall further, and soon. The "Williams%R" indicator, which leads the Slow Stochs by a few days, is showing even greater "oversold" tendencies, and in some cases is starting to head back up. Geithner's plans released on March 22, 2009, certainly put a hold on this ETF rising, but that hold will be only temporary, as I see it.
Again, like I wrote last time, if investing for the masses is anything, it's psychological. So, I think we'll see a general fall in the major indices starting next week as despair once again begins to settle in on Joe Investor and people realize that Geithner's plan really only help out the banks at the taxpayers' expense. This downturn should run for 2-5 weeks, depending upon what actions the Fed takes (like putting a ban on short selling again, which would not surprise me). That sort of ban would weaken my case for these ETFs, but it's not going to stop the freight train that is coming down the tracks.
Finally, let me be absolutely clear: I still believe we are definitely NOT at THE bottom. We have at least another 25% to fall:
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=137397&t=01009471911616523983
If you do not have time to watch your purchases over the next 2-5 weeks, don't play the game. I have a feeling it's going to be very volatile and too risky for most people (probably including myself, if I had any sense at all). Good luck!
Well friend, it looks like you were early but if it looked good at 85-95, it looks great at 65.00 where it closed Friday, 4/10.I'm with you. This is phony and hyped so that the banks can dump stock.
I agree with you completely. I just picked up a few shares today at 68 and will patiently wait for general market fear to pick up and lift these shares. The strong bear market rally we witnessed these past few weeks can not continue, especially with earnings season upon us. Soon, investors will realize that profits aren't nearly as optimistic as they thought. If SKF doesn't double through summer, I would be extremely surprised but not let down. If the government can delay fear for that long, then expect SKF to triple or even quadruple this fall or soon after.Do not sell this ETF too early because you can capture great gains here.Chris
not exactly calling it right this time...
Well if it looked good at $95 it sure must look great at $47, but hang in there it will be back into the $100's after This government led rally collapses.
What about $38.94? What's next for the SKF. I entered around $50 and sucking wind at this point. Some info requested..... This ETF has not been below $50 since inception and the market was much, much higher than it is now....What's up with that? thank you.
I can't I'm out. Both SKF & SDS killing me.
My stock gains are only subsidizing my losses
on the short ETFs.
So bad I ain't lookin' back to see the debris.
No rubbernecking here !!!!!!!!!!
Good fortune,
Tom
On 6/1/09 Market Edge-Second Opinion upgraded SKF from Neutral to Hold, but simultaneously cautioning that while the "Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend" both the 50 day and 200 day Moving Averages are falling which is Bearish.
Hence they have recommended a Buy Stop of 48.96.
Notwithstanding, my own doctor is Bullish on SKF and recently accumulated a large number of the stock.
Hammerhammer, good one. Yep, I totally missed it on this call.
People are really buying all this BS about the banks having come thru unscathed, relatively, and bidding prices back up into the stratosphere. It's all bunk, all crap. The house of cards that is Wall Street banking has passed it debt unto the American public, and we will all reap more pain later. Unfortunately for this pick, there is very little opportunity for me to come back and make any positive points with this pig. And it's killing me in my RW portfolio too. I need to cut this pig loose and just take the loss, but am paralyzed at doing so, because I *KNOW* that just as soon as I do, this market is going to top out and start heading back down where it belongs. That is, unless the SEC does something stupid again and starts messing with the uptick rule...