SEMICONDUCTOR HOLD DEP REC(20 SEMI COND COS) (AMEX:SMH)

TechValueDude (65.17) Submitted: 1/27/2008 11:29:00 PM : Start Price: $25.51 SMH Score: +19.13

SMH mimics the SOX semi index. In the last decade the total return on SOX has dipped below SP500 3 times: 1998, 2002, and now. Previous trough to peak returns: 550% and 150%. Will SOX reach 1300 again (350 now)? Not this year. Will a recession hit causing semi growth to slow? Probably. But given the low inventory levels and lack of liquidity with which to buy new capacity, I'd be willing to bet that the growth we'll see in this up cycle (starting mid-08) will be much more profitable than '02-'04 for the top players.