Thousands of investors, millions in profit
BATS data provided in real-time. NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX data delayed 15 minutes.
Real-Time prices provided by BATS. Market data provided by Interactive Data.
Company fundamental data provided by Morningstar. Earnings Estimates and Analyst Ratings provided by Zacks.
SEC Filings and Insider Transactions provided by Edgar Online.
Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions. Terms & Conditions
RSS Headlines
Fool UK
Recs
I had lost "track" of Searchlight Minerals as it drifted well below the $0.50 pick threshhold. Sometimes I look back on my closed calls and "chide" myself for getting out of a downthumb too early, but sometimes I think I'm "playing" the charts and anticipating the rise/fall (I didn't say pump/dump, I wouldn't do that)..... of the share price and the "sentiment" and I miss the opportunity to ride it down further.
Searchlight has produced little meaningful results since I downthumbed it a year or so ago and since it drifted to the $0.35 range. The last few days it has soared upward from $0.35 to a peak (so far) today of $0.89. Nothing like a 154% three day gain!! The problem is that those jumping in are in most cases happily replacing more long term bagholders who couldn't get out. Sub 50,000 share volume days were common before the 6 million shares that traded the last three days in ever increasing increments.
Pitch from one year ago still extremely accurate and matches the last 10-Q almost exactly, they are counting on leaching "missed' minerals from a slag pile at Clarksdale and using the proceeds to open a new mine at Searchlight. They have been stalled out the last two years on the first step....
=============================
Their efforts to go through the "dump" site from a mine in Arizona and use "new processes" to glean more base metals from it, has been a two year long process that has showed various decent results in pilot, but not matured in real life. The variety of the chemicals used, grinding, leaching, abrasiveness on the equipment, experts called in, etc, continues. The area is miner friendly since this was an existing mine, but the road infrastructure needs some work. They also hope to mine for gold in Searchlight, Nevada.
The Gold mining phase is deferred while they work on the slag recovery. My issues, besides no clear formula to accomplish their goals two years down the line is MONEY.
No Mon, no Fun. They might be better off shining a searchlight at the slag pile and picking out the shiny metals by hand. This will continue to be dilutive and the 148 Million in market cap is absurd, but again, someone was/is buying.
Another concern is that insiders are selling. Crockett a director has permission to sell another 500,000 shares into the open market for estate planning diversification, etc.........
=======================
Current 12 Aug 10-Q
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/110812/srch.ob10-q.html
Our exploration and evaluation plan calls for significant expenses in connection with the Clarkdale Slag Project and the Searchlight Gold Project. During the next 12 months, our management anticipates that the minimum cash requirements for funding our proposed testing and feasibility programs and our continued operations will be approximately $7,300,000. As of August 12, 2011, we had cash reserves in the amount of approximately $5,850,000. Our current financial resources may not be sufficient to allow us to meet the anticipated costs of our testing and feasibility programs during the next 12 months and we may require additional financing in order to fund these activities.
The great thing about a classic TSIF post such as this is the use of quotation marks. I can picture Ferdinand de Saussure rolling in his grave with glee.
Track -> chide -> playing -> sentiment -> dump -> new processes
Read between the lines, Fools. I and my minus 113 points are in a good place. Red thumb.
"Read between the lines" err quote marks and you get a very concise summary or the investor cycle in this one! Sums up the cycle quite nicely!!! ;)
Quote marks work when pitches don't give you the variety of Bold and Italic! ;)
I'm not sure what happened Friday afternoon with the 50% jump the last few hours this past Friday (9/18). It means a few weeks longer of getting our "points back" and a win for BravoBevo who successfully played one of his upthumb cards to attempt to time the "reload".
At least three newletters unloaded during the day on Friday. Whoever subscibes to those better understand a "short term" day trader trading style or they will be riding this one back down!
Down we go..........
Appears it's being pumped on the back of this PR:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1084226/000114420411051355/v234163_ex99-1.htm
Thought this one was down for the count!
I am currently negative score leader. Do I get a lucky charm for that? More to the point: Did I read that PR release right?
Yes, I saw that press release several days before the spike. A few "newsletters" apparently decided to "ride it up".
impetous..... "Did I read that PR Release right?"
No idea how you read it.....it's more of the same from the last three years. They keep testing the slag pile. Agreeing that metals were "missed" the first time it was processed that new techniques might "leach" out. They have no funds to build bigger autoclaves and no proof that it's worth it if they do. A slag pile represents years of mine operation and just like with the original excavations, concentrations will vary. So if you are wondering if our down thumbs are in jeapordy of more "pain"....I don't think so, just a slower decay as the new bagholders assess what they bought, why, and how far down to hold it! 3 Million shares today on this one is a LOT of "Foolishness" and if I'm correct, a lot of new bagholders. Day sellers will start selling soon, and speculators will dump quickly. Peak was at $1.54. Close today sub $1.20. About 3 weeks to get back below $0.80.
I don't think Fool is encouraging holding open losing picks, so no, no charm for being the most "Foolish" fool and holding onto this one as it climbs!!! I learned my lesson on "real" company's and those with 1,000 negative points on car parts company's and gambling casinos certainly don't deserve the "most foolish" charm! ;)
It might be cute charm to have though! ;)
Yeah, I was sort of kidding on the charm. I think they have a few other ones that have a negative context, but "biggest fool" would be a riot.
Anyway, what I read was pretty much "They keep testing the slag pile" -- I read this against stuff they were sending out when you or someone else I follow found this stock a year ago or whenever it was, and it said what seemed like exactly the same thing. So that's what I meant. From what I understand, this is the art of making stasis "sound" like news, which is a little closer to the business that I am in. So I am not in point of fact "worried" about my red thumb, although I did find it entertaining to be the "worst" at this point. The people getting rich on this are getting rich, but anyone who holds it buys his jeans from Obscene and drinks Jammin blah blah blah you know what I mean....
Different testing, similar results, similar outcome.....so recycled like a slag pile! ;)
Are you making fun of my new Obscene Jeans....they were having a huge sale after some mix up over the Jersey Shore stars wearing them. Hard to believe someone would sign such a contract when they didn't have the authority! No doubt they will be unique since they only made 12 pair. And that Jammin coffee isn't bad either, if you drink it while inhaling on what is really Bob Marley's finest legacy! ;)
Yeah, I saw you. You were standing over the Allied Irish Bank ATM swearing a blue streak. I couldn't tell if that was because you had spilled your Jammin Java on your Respect Your Universe T shirt or because you dropped a bag full of borders books on the Crox you bought at Steve and Barry's.
Well, you gents have the points and time to ride this out - assuming the negative thesis stays the same. I'm sitting on a red thumb (ouch) and it is the equivalent of almost all the points I have. A bit disheartening to see my score plummeting so far...Are you still on the same page that this is an inevitable pump and, err, I mean this is a family show; "Enthusiastically overstate" and then "Leave at the altar?"
AWinvestments, It is rough in the early stages of CAPs to have an equity clobber you as hard as this one has done to you. I went from a allstar to a propellerhead several times in my early days. I do wish I had some of my points back from downthumbs on "real company's" that I thought would go bankrupt in 2009. I'll take my hits, however, as learning lessons that creditors don't want to "own" company's they are invested in and will give a company a LOT of leeway to recover.
You are right that we have enough points to let this one ride, but I do close picks in the red if my thesis has changed or if I have been "proven wrong". That definition can vary with OB equities.
I'm more hesitant to downthumb equities of ANY nature that are sub $1. I bend that rule in some cases.
The bottom line on any pick is has anything changed, (besides the share price!) since you picked it.
In this case, I can't find anything that has changed. Many OB stocks ARE real companies. Some people make the mistake of thinking they are all junk. MOST OB company's, however open with a valuation, that real or not is just inconsistant with reality, even if they are successful. The company's often open on the market as a reverse shell and MILLIONS of shares are issued.
This is true of Searchlight with its 129 MIllion shares (and growing) outstanding. Even if they can leach this slag pile for every microdust particle the prior process left behind, they aren't worth the market cap.
While a further rise from your $0.6x entry would multiply your red, I usually look at these as "points in the bank".......While, clearly I'd rather have downthumbed it from a higher level, I do expect to get my points back at some point.
I anticipate a hard down in a week or so. IT will, however, barring really bad news take a LONG time to drift back down to sub $0.60 from here. Resistance builds as the bagholders trade places at higher levels. This one also has a large holder buying which causes further speculation.
I'd suggest riding this one back down longer, but there is always the chance that some big buyer knows something we don't and things could get worse. You could close on the next dip and book your loss, run to prevent further loss OR do a new downthumb at a higher level and get some back, or you can can hold and ride this one.
I think the odds are still there that it will give you all your points back and more at some point, but again, that could take more time. I take all my plays, good and bad, as learning opportunities. There is a point where you have "learned enough" on a call, but I don't think that's true on this one.
Good luck!!!! Down with SLAG PILES!!!
TSIF