Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (NASDAQ:SVA)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company which is in the business of research, development, manufacturing and commercialization of vaccines that protect against human infectious diseases.


Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.81) Submitted: 6/17/2011 11:05:43 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.18 SVA Score: -48.75

I can't say I exactly love this company, but I've been in and out a few times over the years for small gains and I haven't found anything else to rate today. Sinovac has an interesting lifetime stock price chart with dramatic peaks every two years or so during flu scares. In between the peaks, the share price carves out deep troughs after yet another epidemic passes without a new vaccine from Sinovac entering the fray. The stock is now back in quiescent mode and recently reported low revenues that are typical of this time of year. There's no question the share price could hit 2 again but at that point I'd start seeing this as a serious potential investment. If the pattern holds the stock should be headed to another peak within a year.

Report this Post 4 Replies
Member Avatar Kvedarna (99.51) Submitted: 6/20/2011 1:13:06 PM
Recs: 0

The P&F chart looks terrible.

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 6/21/2011 5:12:30 PM
Recs: 1

It's not about the P/F on a's what's in the pipeline and what the market value is. I don't expect another H1N1 scare anytime soon, but it could also start making a profit off it's current portfolio as it goes into production on it's Rabies vaccine. It's also a play on technicals in this case. SVA is fairly high risk/reward and not really investor grade. It's more speculator grade and its doubled, tripped and 10X'd a few times in the past. Bottom, however could be much lower and another multi-bagger run is a gamble.

Member Avatar chiro85 (97.17) Submitted: 8/6/2011 2:55:39 PM
Recs: 0

A lot of the deep drop this year was caused by general distrust by investors in ALL Chinese companies. Actually, they are in final stages of selling a Hoof and Mouth disease vaccine that should have a pretty sizeable market in Asia. Normally, a new product line would support the share price. This year every fund and institution holding China stocks are in sell mode. I think there is a large upside coming to this company with a small downside.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.81) Submitted: 4/13/2012 9:06:53 PM
Recs: 1

Wow, how much further can this stock drop? The share price hasn't been below 2 since the collapse of speculative stocks in early 2009. Meanwhile, vaccine sales have steadily increased and the company was profitable in Q4 2011. Inoculations are now complete in a 10000 patient phase III trial of the EV71 vaccine for hand, foot, mouth disease with completion of the trial expected in H1 2013.

Sinovac has never been one of my favorite companies but I can't ignore the cheap valuation here. The swine flu scare of 2009 saw the share price touch 10 before realism kicked in. It seems the market is just disgusted with all things China, but I see the likelihood of an accounting scam as being very low here. 5000 shares went into the GBMB account today at 1.81.

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