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Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 4/18/2013 12:24:38 AM : Underperform Start Price: $4.20 SVA Score: +13.20

I made some money from Sinovac last year, but as usual I left the party right before the drunk bachelorettes arrived. Sinovac is now back in unsustainable territory due to the double whammy of a new bird flu epidemic and positive reuslts for the EV71 vaccine for hand-foot-mouth disease. As always, the flu scare will resolve itself without any contribution from Sinovac or any long-term impact on their revenues. And EV71 is no doubt benefiting from public confusion over hand-foot-mouth disease, a benign illness of children that sounds a lot like hoof-and-mouth disease, an economically disastrous disease of cattle. Not every childhood viral illness requires a vaccine. I suspect that even though a few hundred children die of hand-foot-mouth out the million who contract it every year in China, the Chinese government won't see it as a public health issue pressing enough to require a new vaccination program. Eventually, Sinovac will have to live or die based on their hepatitis vaccine programs which of late have looked somewhat stagnant.

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