TASER International, Inc. (NASDAQ:TASR)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

The Company is engaged in the development and manufacture of advanced electronic control devices designed for use in law enforcement, corrections, private security and personal defense.

Recs

5
Player Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 9/19/2012 2:09:45 PM : Underperform Start Price: $6.16 TASR Score: -194.19

Taser gives investors a "jolt" from time to time. Global unrest may be "good" for Taser. Supplies and restock are expensive, but the product does not have widespread adoption in some areas due to liability concerns. If you have a choice between non-lethal force and lethal, you also have the choice of what non-lethal force to use.

Taser has it's proponents and generally heavy short interest.No difinitive opinion at this point. I've read both points of views, and I think the product outlook is somewhere in the middle. I'm not "game" for a 4X P/B or a 3X P/S. Two quarters booking $3Million in revenue each quarter doesn't outweigh three years of loses. I don't believe the last 15% spike is sustainable at this point. I might get shocked short term with these bad habits of trying to skim 10-15% in a few weeks, but overall I'll play the trend and take the risk.

Short term retrace. Wouldn't play this down from $5.85 where it is today, but had to bite at $6.15. Looking for a retrace back to $5.60 or lower if they don't meet the high expectations next quarter.

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Member Avatar wanners (92.97) Submitted: 10/31/2012 1:00:09 PM
Recs: 2

You aren't looking at the small share count of this company. TASR is easily a $19 stock. As they've entered a replacement and adaptation era and earnings consistently increase, there won't be enough shares to go around to all that want to own it. Sadly, most don't know much about this company and won't be in a position to benefit.

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 10/31/2012 4:21:40 PM
Recs: 0

As my pitch indicated, this was a borderline downthumb and I almost had it closed before the last spike. Your comments, however of a $19 stock and not enough shares to go around are both very much "off base".

There are over 50 Million shares outstanding. Less than 4% is insiders and less than 50% institutional. The shorts, however, pile on to equities such as this in such large numbers that when there is marginal news that might be worth a 3-5% increase of valuation, they are forced to trip over themselves covering. There are plenty of shares for anyone who wants to go long.

The $0.26 drop today is typical of the end of short covering. I expect another 20-30 cent drop the next few days and then a slow drift back down. It may not hit my $6.16 CAPS entry, but it's not going to spike any higher.

The jolt is over. Longs will get a new "basing" and can feel better, but speculators should be careful. Volume and sentiment meters point down for now.

Member Avatar wanners (92.97) Submitted: 10/31/2012 11:44:38 PM
Recs: 2

I've actually been heavily invested in tasr since 2004 and have experienced all of which it has to offer as an investor. You're looking at the stock as a trading vehicle not the investment that it is for the patient. Taser dropped to these lower levels due to the recession and for no other reason. They are regaining their footing and earnings are showing this. And 50 million shares is nothing. Go and look at the chart 2004-2007, then tell me 52 mil shares is plenty.

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 11/1/2012 11:30:46 AM
Recs: 1

While I agree that volume was much higher several years ago when it was a speculative growth stock. 2004-2007 is a perfect chart example of speculation/trading, NOT investing. 50 Million shares is plenty in todays world, especially considering who is holding (or not holding them). Institutions shed close to 4 million shares last quarter (8%). It is a fallacy to compare any company's statistics from pre-2008 and forcast it forward to today. Most companies that were going to recover from an oversold/fear condition have. There were bargains to be had during the recovery. Taser is not one of them and you've provided no metrics to indicate otherwise. Past performance is no guarantee of anything in today's world, especially when past performance was erratic speculation.

Part of the earnings gains are due to an 8% stock buyback over the last year and Taser is out of ammo in this regard. The share price spike was mostly due to short covering.

I wish you the best of luck. I have no issue being proven wrong. Stocks often react well when they go from negative to positive earnings. In this case, however, the momentum and earnings are not sustainable. It's clear you have conviction in your position. If I'm still in the red six months from now on this pick and have it open, then please check back in.

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 2/25/2014 12:02:43 PM
Recs: 0

I'm going to hold this through earnings tomorrow, and unless there is a substantial retrace, I'll close it and concede to wanners.

I seen no substantial increase in earning the last few quarters, especially not to support a P/B of 10 and P/E over 50. These need growth to sustain. Still some stocks don't behave in a fundamental way and I can certainly concede to them or that I'm missing somthing. Without growth, however, I don't think so.

4 Quarters of revenue with no change in margins/expenses:
35M, 32M, 30M, 32M is not a growth story.

This could be one where the S&P on a tear will lower my score, but I don't hide behind large S&P movements.

Good luck wanners.

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 2/26/2014 1:32:19 PM
Recs: 0

$40 Million is nice, but overall metrics not much better. This is NOT worth more than $10.
One law suite was pushed back, two still exist, but lawsuits are down significantly.

A few more days for this to settle and I'll close, but I wouldn't be surprised if momentum wanes further.
good luck wanners.

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