+ Watch TC
on My Watchlist
Thompson Creek Metals mines, mills, processes, and markets molybdenum products in Canada and the United States.
After reviewing the quarterly statement just released on 11-9-12, I think this company is solidly on the cusp of coming out of the doldrums. There are some risks that the company has with it's credit agreements, but the cost per pound of ore is accelerating downward and has been going down quarter over quarter for a while.
A followup note: Since I made this pitch, the stock took a short term dip. But it has come back up. The 200 day simple moving average at time of pitch was at $4.59. As of 12-18-12 the 200 day simple moving average fell to $3.85 and the stock passed this that day going to $3.99. Since then, it has peaked at $4.22 and has come back down but has not fallen below the 200 day SMA. As of this follow up, that SMA has fallen to $3.86. I feel that the market is attempting to test this average as a new floor. Side note: the 50 day SMA is still at $2.99.Why has this happened? This has been a big move in a short period of time. I was concerned because I wasn't aware of any announcements by the company aside from closing it's senior notes to finish it's new copper/gold mine at Mt. Milligan. But there was news outside of the company such as Freeport McMoRan when it decided to become a miner AND a driller (I think a lot of people sold out of this and looked for money elsewhere in the mining sector). Then there was some general news about potential copper shortages and a China resurgence. But, I have to admit, all this was just potential, nothing really solid. We haven't seen actual resurgence in China yet, or actual resurgence in housing that would cause the kind of shortages in copper people are fretting about. It's only been a hint leading to long term speculation of trends.One other thing: The gold value of the mine shouldn't have quite so much a hit on their value as a company since they only own half of the gold there. It was basically pre-sold to help finance the mine. They would have to mine a LOT of gold to make that a poor sale. (Not exactly a bad problem to have, either.)Jim Jubak also wrote aobut TC: http://jubakpicks.com/2012/12/13/looking-for-a-copper-stock-thompson-creek-deserves-a-speculative-peek/#more-10078
One more additional note: I think that these larger issues will become the dominant factor for this company's price until their next quarterly report in early February.
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