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$18.65 0.41 (2.25%)
12/3/2008 3:27 PM

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

CAPS Rating:
*

Designs, builds, markets & arranges financing for single-family detached & attached homes in luxury residential communities. Also involved in projects building, or converting existing rental apartment buildings into, high-, mid- & low-rise luxury homes.

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Avatar Madmykl (25.63) Submitted: 9/03/07 12:45 AM : Outperform Start Price: $21.29 TOL Score: 29.44

I really dont like these guys, but guess what... They are still turning a profit in the midst of such a horrible downturn in the housing market (and still have a positive RoE). They will survive while the others wont. Top play in a beaten down industry.





I'll probably lose in the short term (months, maybe the next year or two) but in the long term this one will far outpace the market.

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Avatar HatchingPlans (99.81) Submitted: 9/06/07 8:52 PM

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eeew bro

*smack*

I know you follow Warren Buffet, and he says to look for energy, intelligence, and integrity. That last one is the most important, because if they don't have integrity you want em dumb and lazy. If you're gonna go long on a beaten up sector, pick the good companies in that sector. Right now you're reaching into the toilet of the sector and looking for treasures.

Sorry but I had to do it buddy. It's the only way you'll learn.

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Avatar mevanzzz (99.01) Submitted: 9/07/07 8:50 PM

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I'd imagine that on paper Toll Brothers appear more profitable than their peers, but it is likely that they have lagged other companies in writing down their inventory of unsold homes and land. This could mean that larger than expected downward surprises will be realized in the coming months. Additionally, targeting the higher end of the market seemed like a good strategy for pulling through the housing recession, but since the credit markets became jittery there are no buyers for jumbo mortgages (>$413,000). Jumbo mortgages are not insured by the feds, so investors are shying away from them...which means home buyers in the high end market will have trouble lilning up the requisite mortgages to buy Toll Bros product. It could get rough up ahead.

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Avatar Madmykl (25.63) Submitted: 9/14/07 3:59 PM

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I guess only time will tell who's right on this one. I'm happy to wait.

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