$18.02
-1.47 (-7.54%)
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)
CAPS Rating:
Designs, builds, markets & arranges financing for single-family detached & attached homes in luxury residential communities. Also involved in projects building, or converting existing rental apartment buildings into, high-, mid- & low-rise luxury homes.
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They are starting to move on some aggressive plays behind the scenes that will significantly benefit the company over time... I like what I am hearing, I think they will execute...... DIECBWT
Obviously, you think TOL will be an acquirer of companies coming out of our recession. Who else will look to acquire and who do you feel is a target for acquisition. In previous posts you mentioned max fear would happen in Q408, do you still feel that way or do you think builders retest November lows.
fladoy... acquiring companies... maybe... acquiring assets... yes... the key is how you go about acquiring assets and that is EVERYTHING.... many of TOLs peers are moving towards rolling takes, which means that they are acquiring lots within a community on a monthly or quarterly basis vs. one huge acquisition of a community... this significantly improves IRR and is the strategy NVR uses.... Read my comments about SPF and what they were trying to do with TOA... that is how you buy large tracts of assets below development costs (raw land at zero).... I follow what the builders are doing behind the scenes strategically... there are only so many players in this game....the only builder stocks that will continue to falter big time are the ones with a lot of debt.... the ones I green thumb will not underperform the market over the next year or so... well KBH is borderline..... all my green thumbs are based first and foremost on what anyone can gather (public balance sheet information).... secondly it is based on strategic future acquisitions....many think the publics are toast, but there probably will still be built 200k-300k single family homes this year worst case scenario.. new... that is one million homes less than the last 20 year average!!! A company like TOL needs to capture only 4,000 of those sales to generate positive cashflow... that is less than 2% of all new homes built... I'll be proved right in the long run on my green thumb builders
Would now be a good time to start buying? The market seems to want to go lower, I think there will be a great entry point for all stocks within a few months.
mlgtrader if we are not talking short covering bounces (e.g. citibank, hovnanian, any company that is total crap)... I would say that TOL and MTH could be strong bouncers when the market turns and I think we are getting close to a powerful rebound rally... I believe goodvibes is on the same page with that.... I'm mainly in ETF's and writing covered calls at the money one month out... the strategy has kept me above water so far in 2009....to your point on the SPF reply... look at my DHI red thumb pick... DHI is up 6% while the SPY is down 21%!!!!!!! So how can anyone say that homebuilders will significantly underperform... I believe European stocks and Financials have fared way worse.... And for the most part I am red and green thumbing builders long term because I think last year we entered the stage where builders wouldn't trade as a group but instead the strong would stabilize and move up slowly and the weak would go to zero..... I'd like to green thumb PHM and RYL, but still waiting for maybe a capitulation day
insiders unload a lot of shares why?
rioter.... i take it you are referring to Bob Toll selling 2.5 or 2.7 million shares the last 5 months or so.... he still owns a crap load of shares and he is going to pay himself future earnings with stock options, so why not take 50mm dollars off the table?at the end of the day he is doing what every other person in the country is doing... raising cash and diversifying.... I wouldn't read anything into it, TOL is one of the best builders in the country when it comes to land acquisition and every other semi custom builder is going under pretty much so not a lot of competition
TOLL Brothers Inc.Toll brothers started base on their father business in home construction.They building for many years in NJ and their homes are to expense for the feature offered.Their business of construction is based in sub contracting small companies where the labor is most of the time foreigners providing cheap work and without benefits. Without any real construction employees, they are more like a real estate company than a construction company.
accaps,by your definition then all construction companies are RE companies... since they all subcontract work and most of it is foreign without benefits. There is only one company I knew of that was a construction company that employed the vertical workers....