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$18.55 0.31 (1.70%)
12/3/2008 3:05 PM

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

CAPS Rating:
*

Designs, builds, markets & arranges financing for single-family detached & attached homes in luxury residential communities. Also involved in projects building, or converting existing rental apartment buildings into, high-, mid- & low-rise luxury homes.

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Avatar datajunky (59.70) Submitted: 1/18/07 4:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $30.93 TOL Score: -0.23

This stock has been battered by the decline in housing but it's an overreaction. This housing situation is not going to last forever so I think the market is being short sighted. They tend to build high end homes at $500K+ which makes them a little less sensitive to the vagaries of the housing market. They also have a great inventory of land that is getting harder and harder to come by. Assuming that they slow down and deplete their inventory of land and houses they should start to throw off more cash. The management team is sound and has delivered a tripling of revenue over the last 6 years. I believe that the brothers own a significant percentage of the company but I don't have the numbers handy. Now consider the numbers:

Trailing P/E = 6.5
ROE = 29.2%
Analysts calling for a 12.1% revenue growth rate over the next 5 years

Seems like a no-brainer to me. My biggest fear actually is that they will take the company private at some paltry premium to the market.

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Avatar DemonDoug (99.69) Submitted: 5/04/07 4:29 PM

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Were those the same analysts that were calling for 20% revenue growth in tech stocks in 2000, and calling for 20% home price appreciation in 2006?

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Avatar tante1418 (< 20) Submitted: 10/05/07 11:48 AM

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I agree... I live in one of their communities...last time I asked the Sales Manager about selling House at a Discount...she said they are not offering Discount yet in our area..at least property value are holding up in some areas...but you got to be patient with the stock because it will take probably 2 or 3 years before it can go back to the $60s...
have patience...be long..

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