Trius Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSRX.DL)

CAPS Rating: No stars


Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 5/13/2011 8:03:17 PM : Underperform Start Price: $7.55 TSRX.DL Score: +5.98

Trius's share price has now more than doubled from the December lows without a true positive catalyst. The only thing that's new is a very positive write up from Zacks. They make some good points, but I haven't found Zacks to be a very strong predictor of success except when they create a self-fulfilling prophecy in low float stocks like Trius. As of the latest PR, cash reserves were at 37M and the company is burning 10M per quarter. I was suprised not to see a going concern notice in the most recent PR, nor did I see any reference at all to their short cash runway.

Antibiotics can be very tough to call. The FDA has been very hard on them in recent years, shifting the approval requirement from non-inferiority to superiority in certain indications. The market sees them as shaky, low-margin products as evidenced by the weak performance of successful antibiotic developers like Optimer. Trius won't report data from their first phase III trial of torezolid until 2012, and will certainly have to raise money before they file an NDA. Until then I expect them to trade in range barring any disaster in development. Below 4 Trius becomes very interesting, above 6 I wouldn't touch them.

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Member Avatar jakebroido (< 20) Submitted: 5/16/2011 12:03:06 PM
Recs: 0

do you really believe that the federal government would put over 40k into a project and watch it phizzle because of a lack of funds? We're talking about a project that is basically subsidized by the feds as well as the FDA. Both are holding trius' hand because the torezolid phosphate WILL save lives. It's not a matter of when, but of how much, this stock will go up when people realize what this company is doing and how many lives it can improve.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 5/16/2011 12:21:48 PM
Recs: 3

Ugh, I hate these generic nonsensical pumps. I can almost see the spittle flying from the gap between his upper incisors when he talks.

Member Avatar jakebroido (< 20) Submitted: 5/16/2011 3:01:05 PM
Recs: 0

It's not nonsensical. The product they are very close to manufacturing will actually save lives and improve patient care... you're an idiot. If the pragmatic practices of the FDA are enough to sway you into not buying a stock maybe you shouldn't invest in anything at all.

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 5/16/2011 5:32:42 PM
Recs: 2

Not that ZZ needs defending, but players who join CAPS and make only one pick and then resort to name calling, rather than informative dialogue are either pumpers or people with very bad manners. We put our pitches/opinions out for others to see and for others to add other thoughts or useful information that can be considered. You didn't provide any jakebroido, you just resorted to name calling. We find that 98% of those who open an account and make one pick, and then slam pitches with no meaningful information, are not investors, but pumpers or shorts. For those who start with one pick and join in the dialogue with useful information, welcome.

What the government has put in is pretty meaningless at this stage. They put millions into other company's that have failed. The question here, however, isn't about failure, it's about valuation at various stages of study's and trials and the timeline to market, (IF the drug gets to and through FDA approval). When a company's burn rate is higher than cash on hand, it doesn't mean they will fail, it means they must find some way to raise more money. This is almost always dilutive to current shareholders and almost always results in a short term share price reduction. Trius issued $46 Million in stock two quarters ago and has already burned through over $16 Million. They will issue more at least one more time, and probably two more times before they get meaningful results.

Investors can buy a biopharm on the ground floor and go for a volitile ride, or they can learn the patterns of biopharms and minimize thier risk and potentially maximize their reward. Trius surged way ahead of itself. It will drop back to sub-$7 and very likely sub-$6 before it makes a run up on positive data nearer an FDA date. Buy now and don't watch, or look for the cycles of a biopharm.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 5/17/2011 11:02:05 AM
Recs: 0

Wow TSIF, I didn't know you spoke Troll.

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 5/17/2011 12:05:11 PM
Recs: 0

I've had more than my share, but that's what you get when you spend the time and effort to put out pitches. I like to give new players the benefit of the doubt, but sometimes it's clear that they are not here to dialogue and respect opinions.

I do understand that in the medical field there can be much more emotion. All posters should recognize that if we question financials/valuation on an investment board, it doesn't mean we are against the company or the drug.

Keep pitching away! It would be nice if more people did and if our pitches faded away in a reasonable time, (or after we've switched our thumbs)! ;)

I don't understand much of the medical lingo, but you've really helped me understand the cycles! Thanks!

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