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Global financial firm serving a discerning global client base. The Company provides private banking services and is a global asset manager.
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wutangfinancial (98.03) Submitted: 3/23/07 9:26 PM : Start Price: $59.90 UBS Score: -51.62
wow-a lot of bears below...anyhow, the subprime panic is already priced into most financials...Banks are no longer principals, they are agents. Those worried about UBS's reserve ratios and such aren't with the times. Lending is not where the future of banking lies. It is in off balance sheet activities. I have friend at UBS working in debt restructuring. Most are anticipating huge bonuses, as c-bond valuations are too high, making default ever more likely=more late nights and more 7 figure bonuses, but most importantly, more revenue in one of their highest margin services. Those in M&A are anticipating huge bonuses as well as the oversaes market stays hot. Asset management will grow as well with the spread of globalization. All of these services are where the money lies anyways.
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UCLAgrdstnt (79.12) Submitted: 7/05/07 2:47 AM
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Re: UBSI recently asked another Fool (also with a rating in the high 90s) about C, with its high Div Yield, low P/E, 5* S&P rating, recent price dip, and large investment interest by Eddie Lampert over the last year. She ended up responding with a blog which argued that the subprime problems have not been truly felt yet and that banks are bad investments for the near to mid term.I found her comments interesting, although for me the jury is still out on this. On here, you write that the subprime problems are already built into the stock. If you feel inspired to do so I would love to hear your alternative opinion on this. Also, perhaps you feel that C, BAC etc. are not great investments but UBS is different because of its large asset management functions (although C and BAC do this to some extent also). Here is the link to her blog:http://makingsenseofmyworld.blogspot.com/I would love to hear what you think. It may be interesting, educational, and beneficial for many Fools and may accomplish what these boards are for: to help us all become more knowledgeable. Thanks,J-
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wutangfinancial (98.03) Submitted: 7/16/07 4:55 PM
Honestly, this is one of those picks where I saw odds of 51:49 in my favor, and in expected value terms, a favorable target considering risk-to-reward. Honestly, this isn't one of my confident picks, as there are too many analysts covering this stock for a true variant perception to be profitable, i.e. all available info has been discounted. I'm holding onto my pick, but I'm not expecting much movement UNLESS there is some major development in the debt markets. In any case, many very smart people in the financial press, namely the Economist and Barrons, are still very worried about credit tightening, but it is my feeling, as a student of a New Monetary Economics, that much of these fears are simply out of touch with the times. Debt is a much more complex issue than it used to be. Financial engineering has allowed risk to be spread and transferred in ways that prevent breakdowns much more effectively through complex derivatives. In effect, the transfer of risk is more much, much more efficient than 7 years ago, even. UBS is, in my opinion, a more conservative bank with good risk management and adequate hedging/long term foresight.I am most certaintly short (or was short) the smaller, low quality underwriters of morgatges, whose assets were undiversified and poorly managed. I think there may be more pain in sub-prime, in fact it's likely. But properly captialized banks like UBS can benefit: they have the ability to buy up distressed debt for pennies on the dollar, and make a killing.
dwot (99.99) Submitted: 12/24/07 9:38 AM
Sure, so you can spread the financial crisis to around the world, wipe local government funds, wipe out people's pension plans...$14 billion in losses, exceptional risk management.
dwot (99.99) Submitted: 12/24/07 9:41 AM
http://makingsenseofmyworld.blogspot.com/2007/07/im-banking-...
wutangfinancial (98.03) Submitted: 12/31/07 8:26 PM
That's not fair...I made this pitch in March, a whole 5 months before the subprime crisis really took off, and 9 months before UBS came clean about their holdings.
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