United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO)

TheParadox (96.05) Submitted: 7/01/08 12:32 AM

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...i got the hunch too... it seems like pure speculation is driving commodity prices higher and higher... Fear
False Evidence Appears Real - FEAR

...I'll wait around

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LynchFan (< 20) Submitted: 8/02/08 11:03 PM

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History has a way of repeating itself...1980 and 2000 are prime examples. Anyone that remembers March of 2000 and what happened leading up to that with Enron, the telecoms and .coms...remembers that some obscure industry report came out that reported that Internet traffic was growing 10X each year. It became a mantra and pretty soon, everyone was jumping on the "10x" bandwagon. AT&T's CEO got sucked right into it along with others. Pretty soon, earnings didn't matter, any .com could be launched and instantly be worth $1Billion. Once Enron got a .com initiative, its stock was launched into cyberspace, all on the promise of "10X" growth...Didnt matter that capacity was expanding to 10X even though the industry was actually growin at 3x. Once Enron's ponzi scheme was figured out, it was game over.

1980, everyone thought that we were running out of oil, prices skyrocketed to an inflation adjusted $104 per barrell. Ad what happened? Toyota's gas sipping cars became en-vogue, we started driving less, we demanded that detroit became more fuel efficient....permanent demand destruction ensued.

Fast forward to 2006-2008 and now $300 oil is suddenly justified on "Chindia" growth forecasts...Neve mind that the world's largest user of oil is experincing a huge decrease in demand, the fact that M and Ford are shutting down production of SUV's and pickup trucks and replacing the capacity with hybrids that get 3X the gas milage...Never mind that we drive 5% less and Mass transit ridership is up 40%.

Oil is overpriced, and never deserved to be at $147...What we're seeing right now is techincals in reverse that all started off of Merrill's failed "$150 by July 4th" call...Anybody that was watching saw the market made a feverish run at $150 on the days leading up to July 4th, when it didm't break-through this maiical mystical barrier it was all over...Then oil couldn't hold $130 and is testing $121...Once we break thorugh that it will be a series of techincal breaches all the way back below $100.

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