UST, Inc. (UST)

JMCB3 (36.56) Submitted: 4/22/08 11:40 PM

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Not meaning to be rude - just start a friendly discussion and see what others are thinking, please. Please go back and look at the smoke prices
I do understand your thoughts - smokes are hard to give up - dividends are always appreciated - litigation is down for the most part, but sometimes those darn politicians get in the way of a good thing!!

Honestly, I took the "bear" side about 3 weeks ago and to date I'm ahead.

Curious to your thoughts, please. Respectfully - JMCB3 (Joe, Cincy OH)

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JMCB3 (36.56) Submitted: 4/22/08 11:46 PM

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Think my last post got messed up. Please look at the last two times the White house changed hands (May 1992 - January 1993 -- and May 2000 to January 2001). Smoke stocks go down when Dems win, up when Repubs win. Curious if this is 1) Factored into your thinking 2) You think it won't matter 3) You don't think the Dems will win in Nov. (It doesn't matter to me what your politics are.) Respectfully, JMCB3 (Joe, Cincy OH)

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xthecritic (97.16) Submitted: 4/23/08 3:19 PM

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I haven't factored the election into my thinking right or wrong. Although it is an important consideration, I am pretty confident universal health, the iraq war, economic issues/housing crisis, etc. provide a full plate of activity which will prevent any behavioral regulations / tobacco taxes from being high on the agenda in the immediate term after the election.

Either way, UST is actually not in cigarettes despite my reference to smokes in this pitch. They are in smokeless tobacco and wine. To date, smokeless tobacco has not been hit with the same negative press / volume of litigation as cigarettes. As a result, UST is well positioned regardless of whether my hypothesis is correct that political agendas will be concentrated in other areas post election.

I concur that there is some risk to the green thumb on UST but I am very comfortable with it and will stay in outperform mode for now. I will exit this position when I start to feel like the market is ready to break out in a positive direction where defensive steady growers that pay dividends fall out of favor to growth stocks.

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JMCB3 (36.56) Submitted: 4/28/08 11:02 PM

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I must admit you did score points with that UST is smokeless - I did not realize that previously - even I learned something today :-)

Btut my goodness, do you think if universal health care is put in place that taxing tobacco and alcohol to fund it can be far behind? Both McCain and the Dems have plans ready to go and they'll have to pay for it somehow.

I realize I'm thinking "glass half empty" here (and that's not my style). I have no monetary position (long short or options) -- just a thumbs down in the CAPS over I think 6 months. If you've got skin in this stock, you've got more guts than I do.

If you're long UST just just a friendly note to watch it more carefully as we get closer to the political conventions and the elections. Elections (esp changes in party in power) tend to impact these highly.

Thanks,
JMCB3

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xthecritic (97.16) Submitted: 4/30/08 8:46 AM

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No real skin in the game on UST here either. I have just been using this as an accuracy piggy bank closing it every time it gets +5.

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