PROSHARES TR (UYG)

slm05k (< 20) Submitted: 6/05/08 3:12 PM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

I like your arguement but wouldn't you rather do your research and figure out the best banks to hold rather than own a basket of them? It is relatively easy to figure out the ones that are doing fine and the ones that aren't. I love NBG, OFG, and AXP while its pretty obvious the Bank of NY Mellon, AIG and WB aren't in the best of shape. I don't see the point in buying a basket when there are easily identifiable best and worst of breeds out there.

Report this Post Reply

livoniarules (< 20) Submitted: 6/05/08 4:38 PM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

I don't trust any individual financial given their off balance unknown risk... so a basket of them is for pure safety reasons... the reason why I like the ultralong is because it pays 2x the movement... normally when you get an individual stock that is good it will outperform an index all day long... however, even a good stock will have a difficult time outperforming a 2x ultralong ETF.... My expertise is in homebuilding... if you said pick a builder that I know will outperform or pick a 2x ultralong ETF that tracks a basket of builders... I would pick the basket because of the 2x movement in price

Report this Post Reply

GS751 (96.80) Submitted: 6/06/08 12:52 PM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

Actually this holds some of the Better Financials. such as BAC, AXP, JPM, and GS, USB, WFC, all of which will be fine long term. I would really disagree if this ETF's largest holdings were LEH, C, and MS, man is MS screwed they are more leveraged than BSC was.

Report this Post Reply

livoniarules (< 20) Submitted: 6/06/08 10:31 PM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

yes i did take into account the holdings..... like i said, if these names start going bankrupt what does that say about any equities investment? If your properly hedged you net zero or have a little loss........... the fear meter is really high right now

Report this Post Reply

ToKReason (< 20) Submitted: 6/08/08 8:38 PM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

is this a temporary bottom for a year or what floridabuilder? what about the huge explosion of option arms and alt a motgages in 2009 and 2010? wouldnt that be disastrous? " Alt-A loans were given to borrowers with credit scores of between 620 and 700, and included the option of interest-only loans, option ARMs, and no documentation loans that required little if any documentation for loan approval. Ninety percent of those that got an Option ARM in 2006 provided little or no documentation."

Report this Post Reply

slm05k (< 20) Submitted: 6/11/08 12:10 PM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

I know there is only a week's worth of data but I continue to maintain that banks like OFG, NBG, and BAP will by far outperform this and it is simple to see that they are fine and they are great banks to have in a portfolio. Not sure why you need this 2x risk in highly leveraged banks we aren't sure about when we can have a financial in our portfolio that we know for sure about. Seems almost too simple.

Report this Post Reply

livoniarules (< 20) Submitted: 6/11/08 1:31 PM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

its a 5 year hold.... the financials have gone lower below their technical support line and the market has corrected pretty hard like I expected this summer (june-august)...... however, 50% of the ETF is the 2x of 10 stocks and those are some of the strongest financials out there long term..... if these 10 stocks implode then this country has serious issues and pretty much anythig you put money in will blow up or down for that matter.......... I think in the banking sector most of the carnage is going to be with a few big companies whose market caps already are under 1 billion, private financials and regionals........... compare the market cap of goldman, jp morgan, bank of america, or citi (large portion of this ETF) to NCC and IMB to name 2..... NCC and IMB have revenue numbers that dwarf their market cap......... is you go back to one of my first posts in caps this basically means you can't place equity and you can't lever up... so you are on the verge of bankruptcy unless a white knight steps in

Report this Post Reply

anchak (30.85) Submitted: 6/11/08 3:56 PM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

FB...as usual well thought out argument ....folks its really immaterial whether its correct or not ....he's making a rational point.

You know my situation on financials....and I think UYG is possibly THE best way to play if anybody wants to invest here.

A little off-topic ( and I think it would not matter to you personally, knowing your views on OBAMA) - but there's a small problem with Leveraged ETFs as a Long term investment vehicle - as far as I know they are all treated as Short Term - irrespective of holding period. So be aware of the fact from a Tax treatment perspective.

However, if you are convinced say BAC ( trading below 30 today) - actually should be somewhere near where it was say 2 years back ( I think 45).....OR OBAMA is elected and the new CAP GAINS come into play then this is immaterial.

Essentially, depending on your tax bracket there is a break even point for UYG.

Just my 2 cents

Report this Post Reply

ResearchLover (< 20) Submitted: 8/04/08 2:46 PM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

This one bottoms and turns around just when the fed raises rates for the first time, which is after housing has stabilized for 2 straight months. It's a coaster ride till then, with a net momentum generally sideways.

Report this Post Reply

dexion10 (96.59) Submitted: 8/15/08 4:51 PM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

This pick is doomed FB... doomed near term... I'll buy it later but for now I am booking CAPS points shorting the next panic in banking stocks.

Remember while you are an expert in real estate I work at a financial intelligence service and I see lots of bank insiders from the C-suite selling this rally.... what does the market know that they don't.... my bet is NOTHING AT ALL.

Report this Post Reply

livoniarules (< 20) Submitted: 8/16/08 10:41 AM

Recs: 0 | Rec This

Dexion, I got creamed on this and then averaged down in mid july to get out breakeven... i just haven't closed it for CAPS.... if you look my more recent $ picks where I invest have been playing SRS and SKF.... I probably will close this pick once I feel the market is done rallying for the most part I am trading the ultrashorts into daily rallies since they are the most volatile

Report this Post Reply