North America’s largest independent petroleum refiner and marketer, Valero takes fuel from the distiller to the gas pump.
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I am well aware that this pick will turn negative in the short-term, but I am making it nonetheless, because the refiners have--without intention--colluded to cut production. It is the only prudent thing to do. All are hoarding money, mainly through cutting capex, to sustain themselves in such a difficult economic climate. The supply side of gasoline is starting to show signs of strain, because we are near a point where increasingly low gasoline prices cannot be sustained. We are faced with either of two outcomes, shortages driving the price up, or an (exogenous) increase in gasoline prices, or crude. Supply erosion is more likely at this point than continued demand destruction.
VLO has been squeezed in both directions this year (high crude prices this summer and low gas prices this winter). Very little else can happen from a macroeconomic standpoint.