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$18.30 -0.76 (-3.99%)
10/10/2008 4:01 PM

Valero Energy Corp (VLO)

CAPS Rating:
****

The company owns and operates 18 refineries located in the United States, Canada, and Aruba that produce premium, environmentally clean refined products such as RBOB. It also produces conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals.

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Avatar Fenrig (75.52) Submitted: 9/14/06 6:13 AM : Outperform Start Price: $51.60 VLO Score: -31.60

Valero, the best heavy oil refiner in the business with the most data to offer investors. Want to know what a cracker is? It's in the info they give out!

They have a sweet deal taking in heavy crude from down south and turning it into gasoline and other high-end products. They ar ealready established and as the NIMBY eventually fall back due to the crushing needs for fuel, I expect Valero will do well.

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Avatar jwschroeder (< 20) Submitted: 4/18/07 8:39 PM

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Great refiner, great company. I like the stock as well but two things give me pause:

1. What is the upside? - Valero has run up a ton since January. I don't know if there is much upside over $70.

2. Their large dependence on the spread between light, sweet crudes and heavier crudes leaves them vulnerable to production cuts from OPEC (whose marginal production is in heavier crudes).

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Avatar Fenrig (75.52) Submitted: 4/25/07 8:25 PM

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Regarding OPEC cuts: I just don't see that as a serious medium-term threat. Last year, majors such as Conocco failed (again!) to grow their companies by the drill-bit. Just about ALL of their reserve growth was through acquisitions. As long as this remains true, OPEC should be content with high prices and threatening production cuts should just maintain high crude prices... Rattling the sabre more than anything else.

As far as getting in NOW, with oil today at 65$, I'd say wait a bit... say until september or october when we hit the shoulder season and oil prices go down from their seasonal highs. OR, if you're REAL patient, until February or early March next year when we typically get the lowest prices in the year for oil and oil companies of all sorts become bargains.

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Avatar Fenrig (75.52) Submitted: 10/23/07 8:47 PM

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Heh... so much for the idea of cheaper oil in October! Try February 2008, then.

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