VMware (VMW)

1588tw (< 20) Submitted: 10/19/07 9:33 PM

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Are you the same luvb2b that posts on either yahoo or investorsvillage ?

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gunark (91.68) Submitted: 10/28/07 6:08 PM

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You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. VMWare player is just an easy way of ensuring market domination. There is zero potential revenue loss here. There are other virtualization vendors of course, but none come close to what VMWare has to offer, and all will be playing catchup for the forseeable future. Microsoft's offering is bound to remain a niche product, as they are unlikely to offer true "blank slate" machine support (Linux support? not likely), instead tying their system into the ActiveDirectory/.NET framework. And on the other end of the spectrum, Citrix and their Xen offering has a long way to go in terms of supporting software (management, infrastructure, administration, etc.).

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Spinos86 (36.61) Submitted: 10/28/07 9:06 PM

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VMWare is the only "Production Worthy" Virtualization out there. I have tried all of the others, and frankly, I would not even trust my Development or Test boxes to anything but VMWare. Microsoft Virtual server is okay perhaps for a weak load testing box, but their tool and support are almost nil at present time. Even when MS finally does release their VM Tech in Windows Server 2008, the question will STILL be, HOW MANY SERVICE PACKS do you have to wait for before their product is stablized and will they have nearly the tools or support level for their product as VMWare does for theirs? Time will tell. I say VMWare runs unchallenged in Production virtualization for at least 18 months or so, then after that reassessment of the virtual market is needed.

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ResultsMayVary (< 20) Submitted: 11/02/07 10:32 AM

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Comparing Microsoft's virtualization software to that which is produced by VMWare is like comparing a Porsche to a 10-speed bicycle. These two pieces of software aren't even in the same ballpark. If you've used VMware's virtualization platform you'd know that is has its own niche in the market. Nobody even comes close!

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CrazieBastid (53.00) Submitted: 11/02/07 11:14 AM

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I'm inclined to agree just look at the tech sites they've all been raving about VMWare for around two years now. It'll hit a wall at some point I'm sure eventually even google will, but it's not there yet and has a way to go still before it happens.

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nfantis (61.19) Submitted: 11/05/07 1:11 PM

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For all of you who say he don't know what he is talking about...

For a second, lets look at VMWare's P/E ratio. It is at 247 as of 11/5. That is significantly higher than any tech stock out there during the tech bubble.

For VMWare to come to levels that are acceptable for most tech stocks, say a mid to upper 30's P/E ratio, it would have to produce earnings of 3.00 per share. That is 6.5 times its current earnings. 650% growth!? Yes it is a unique product with little competition, however, VMWare is already out in many corporations already. Not to mention many companies that won't roll out VMWare because of the inherent security issues that arise from virtualization.

Just to put it into perspective, Google's 5-year EPS growth is at 200%. There is no way that VMWare can possibly have more growth than Google has, period. Google hits a much broader audience than VMWare.

If you want in on VMWare NOW, go for EMC. They own so much of VMWare that it provides a balance of VMWare's value and a hedge against it's future price correction.

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AresFinancial (99.59) Submitted: 11/17/07 12:23 AM

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Good posts, thank you guys. I thumb down this pig back when it was $100 plus. But then I got nervous, because I could not define what they actually did. I needed the wisdom earlier.

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GeekLaw (99.65) Submitted: 1/23/08 4:41 PM

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Nice call luvb2b. Some of the responses are interesting, but do little except to explain the current valuation. If the revenues do not come, the share price must fall.

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elbaroneydiablo (< 20) Submitted: 2/15/08 2:09 PM

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Seriously people, the bearish poster has no clue what he / she is talking about. Microsoft are literally YEARS behind VMware in terms of market saturation and technology when it comes to Virtualization. Look at the other products VMware have in their arsenal and you'll see why they are the clear market leader. You can get VMware for your home, your kid at college, your sales force, your team of contractors... it's software can save you money on your company electricity bill, save you floor space in your server room, reduce the amount of money you need to spend of expensive hardware maintenance contracts and EVEN load balance your machines automatically!

VMware is so far ahead it can even offer FREE software without losing revenue because it is that good and that established within it's field of expertise. I mean come on, Microsoft? Is that the company that makes an OS or the company that makes a games console?

Other rivals aren't even dreaming about the capability that VMware brings to the table. It knows what it does and it's damn good at it.

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logridden (33.55) Submitted: 2/28/08 8:44 PM

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Wow! I just read your forecast from last Sept. and it has come true! Cool....I think. At any rate, nice prognosticating!

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TMFBreakerDave (99.12) Submitted: 4/04/08 9:22 AM

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The arguments for VMW in this thread largely (a) define the product as superior from a technical standpoint and (b) typically insult (unnecessarily) luvb2b the picker. It just so happens that VMW is now below its IPO price, and luvb2b has been completely right. Thus far. What I think was not paid sufficient heed in my (a) and (b) above was a missing (c), and that is: Luvb2b is one of the highest-rated stockpickers on CAPS.

RESPECT. --DG

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ghostndamachine (< 20) Submitted: 4/11/08 12:46 AM

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Unfortunately most individuals have no idea that less than 10% of all servers worldwide are virtualized, security concerns are far less than any other product (can we even mention security as in issue with a Microsoft alternative), most of the big Enterprises already use VMware so they have the confidence factor already, there is no real competition. With Microsoft the biggest so called threat, most seasoned I.T. Administrators, Engineers...don't even want to think about running an enterprise vitualization product within Windows which is what Microsoft's product will do!. Even Oracle runs their servers on VMware...duh! Unfortunately stocks don't reflect these considerations. Ask the professionals who are actually doing the implementations across all platforms and the answer is always the same. VMware is the only trustworthy platform for virtualization.

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aandriolli (< 20) Submitted: 5/23/08 6:57 PM

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I believe VMW will go beyond the growth ratio you mention as necessary to justify its P/E ratio. Their technology and market opportunity is simply unmatched - that's why they are good to go.

And guess what: even having all this, they just doubled their market oppty by creating virtual desktops. In 2-3 years, you guys will be answering me from a VMware virtual machine - in case you still aren't.

That's the size of the VMware revolution.

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stockmadness22 (< 20) Submitted: 6/18/08 10:08 AM

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I agree, not enough people really understand what VMware does.
Yes MS has a lower end product and free - so does VMware. What is crazy is that people are comparing MS offering to VMware - this is like David and Goliath....Apples and Tomatoes....you get the picture.

VMware has been at this for 10 years and MS continues to base their offering on the OS (for obvious reasons) and has slipped release and reduced features over and over. And...we have seen this kind of track record before (reference: underlying truth in the MAC/PC commercials)

The portfolio from VMware when you truly understand and appreciate it, is a phenomenal strategy and is changing corporate computing in the data center from the largest to smallest companies, changing the way software is developed, deployed, packaged and managed, changing the way you do computing at home, with unique security twist. I use it on my MAC to allow me to run Windows and MAC simultaneously. I use it on my other PCs in the house to protect from hacks, virus's etc. that my kids seem to pick up - yes there's spyware and all, but running a VM is just plain easier. If there is this kind of value for the individual, imagine the value in their complete offering for x86 compute!!

Thats why there are more and more companies deploying and why the power and utility companies are offering rebates .....you guessed it - for those Corporate Data Centers who are consolidating with VMware Infrastructure.

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pickinmynose (< 20) Submitted: 7/08/08 3:20 PM

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http://www.virtualbox.org/

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mdata (26.76) Submitted: 7/14/08 10:12 AM

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I have been working in this area for several years. Virtual server environments are the single most wanted sought after piece of any IT organization. Every customer I work with is or is going to convert their environment to VMware. The conversion is happening more rapidly than I predicted 3 years ago. Microsoft will not be a major player in this area. There product is not ready for prime time and once again they are late to the show. Xen is a good product but is lacking any traction from what I have seen. Plus Xen is lacking some key features VMware has today.

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luvb2b (99.93) Submitted: 7/30/08 10:55 PM

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As I had predicted, the stock dropped 50% from the prices at which I picked it to underperform. The earnings power of the company and revenue growth were simply inadequate to justify a price over $70. Good luck to everyone, I closed out this pick and took a hefty gain.

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