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Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.77) Submitted: 4/15/2008 3:17:49 AM : Underperform Start Price: $25.89 VRTX Score: -34.52

I won't spend much time knocking telaprevir or the rest of the pipeline, as it seems there's a lot of potential there. But a market cap of 3.6 billion? In this environment for biotech? With a quarterly burn of 100 million and no marketed products? It seems a lot of projected success has already been written into the price. Any negative catalyst could send this stock right into the toilet. There's a quarterly statement in about a week as well as interim telaprevir results in May. Those interime results had better be damn good. And just one note of skepticism on the cystic fibrosis data that seemed to initiate the recent run-up: the company claims VX-770 significantly improved lung function in a 14 day study. I'm not a pulmonologist, but my understanding of cystic fibrosis is that the lung damage is mostly chronic and irreversible due to scarring from repeated infections, not an immediate consequence of the underlying genetic defect. So I'm not giving Vertex the cure for cystic fibrosis just yet, thanks.

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