CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A pharmaceutical company dedicated to the development and commercialization of therapeutic products using patented proprietary formulations and novel delivery systems and by seeking new indications for previously approved pharmaceutical products.


Player Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 7/22/2012 6:53:07 PM : Underperform Start Price: $27.02 VVUS Score: +41.12

I put my downthum in on Vivus, INC late in the trading day of July 17th. A date that will remain in memory for many Vivus workers and stock holders as the long awaited results for the FDA's decision for it's newly named obesity drug now named Qsymia. The delay in announcing results saw a gut wrenching see-saw with swings of 10% out the gate as investors tried to determine if it was a "bear raid" or leaked bad news. I saw similar activity on Dendreon, so I waited and lurked with a potential downthumb should they receive a CRL or onnerous labeling requirements. With a 20-2 favorable decision by the advisory board in February, the smarter play would have probably been a wait until the approval and "sell the news". My thoughts on the delay was that labeling was indeed going to be restrictive and the PR needed careful analogy. Even a "leaked' or was it just a pre-written press release, supported passing.

Since Qsymia was approved, I'll have to settle for a "sell the news". The labeling on pregnancy requiring montly tests, cardiological monitoring, and restrictions on pharmacies adds to the concern. A piece written by Citron, a know player of shorts, especially around option time potentially added to the selling this past Friday and we "may bounce up".

The patent issues are possibly old news ,but the fomulation question, whether doctors/clinics will continue to off-label the two common componets remains. I had heard similar from a doctor interviewed who runs a clinic. KV-A is an example of a company that has competition from it's own product.

Add in the following factors, and I'll hold my downthumb.
1. Arena's drug just approved has fewer issues with presciption and similar results. (I won't debate the generalities, just noting that there is similar competition).
2. Vivus has no MFG capabilities/experience and planned to "ramp" up slowly.
3. Vivus, is hoping for a buyout. The Feb 20-2 decision by the advisory board should have given them some time to shop.
4. Less a buyout, companies with single products, going it alone have generally fairled poorly, Dendreon, Savient, Somaxon, etc.
5. Many biopharm followers have little patience. It's always time to look for the next multi-bagger. Loyalty of the holders is dim when you have a 400% gain in a year. Only the last ones in don't have a profit to protect/bank.

Overall, I felt my downthumb before the FDA announcement had the best CAPS edge as it covered me against a sudden drop due to bad news afterhours. If I was "wrong" about the immediate "sell the news" on an approval and difficult labeling, I was/am pretty sure this one's growth to a $2.5 Billion company with a bit "Obese" for this stage in the game.

Hold down and watch. A buyout could still materialize, but I think unlikely. Stronger, institutional hands with more patience could relieve the nervous retail traders of their decision burden holding this up. My likely scenerio is a slow drift back to $18 or so. Then it depends on Vivus.

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 8/10/2012 3:34:54 PM
Recs: 0

Four or five slamming me threads on the VVUS yahoo message board since my pitch was converted to an article. Seems very few pitches besides zzlangerhans can reach the 400 word target for the weekly article, especially lately.

Those who follow me on CAPS know that I have no regard for my meager $0.01 opinion actually affecting stock price.
I am not short VVUS, no intention to short, (although I did own a few puts that I should have purchased a month out that netted me a few dollars just after appoval). I would consider consider ARNA as a long term play if the price was right. My speculative CAPS only upthumb just missed by a few pennies around $7 earlier this week.

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