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Western Digital Corp. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells hard drives for data storage.
According to logarithmic graphs I've been keeping since 2002, flash becomes cheaper than hard disks in 2013 or 2014 (vs 3.5" hard disks), about 1 year before that for laptop disks and other earlier-crossover areas (portability, reliability, low-access-time).Hard disk is dead.
Hard Drive----------Using historical data10/2003 Maxtor 7200 rpm IDE 120GB $15801/2008 Seagate 7200 rpm SATA 500GB $150- 01/2013 Seatage 7200 rpm SATA4 2TB $150Solid Stage-----------Using Moore's law01/2008 SUPER TALENT 2.5" 128GB SATA $3,219.99- 01/2010 SUPER TALENT 2.5" 128GB SATA $1600- 01/2012 SUPER TALENT 2.5" 128GB SATA $800- 01/2014 SUPER TALENT 2.5" 128GB SATA $400- 01/2016 SUPER TALENT 2.5" 128GB SATA $200So in 2013, it will cost you less to buy a 2TB drive than it will cost you to buy a 128GB SSD in 2017.It took me about 5 minutes to do that, so it seems you wasted 6 years of your life. :-)
Production cost aside, one of the major problems with flash technology is it slow, especially write performance. This may not be a problem on a smaller scale but for High volume applications (like database servers for example) it just won't work. Even on laptops and home PC's storage requirements keep growing. It will be great for high-end ultra lights you can slip into a briefcase but SS storage won't be replacing HD storage anytime soon. However, the technology to watch is Nanowire Storage. Stuart Parkin at IBM (yep the same guy that brought you the current high bit density HD drive) is developing this new approach. When (if) that hits production say goodbye to Hard Disks forever.
> 01/2008 SUPER TALENT 2.5" 128GB SATA $3,219.99And just released, getting pretty good reviews08/2008 OCZ core 2.5" 128Gb SSD $550.http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16820227345 Out of stock because initial demand is pretty high.Did you enjoy listening to the WDC conference call when they announced only flat guidance for the next quarter, and the stock fell 10% within a few minutes? If you search for OCZ Core reviews, you'll see they are typically compared with WDC's new premium product, the Veliciraptor. And often the SSD wins.Don't know why you think Moore's law is relevant. Flash is falling in price faster than Moore's law. Moore's law is about the amount of transistors on a given size of die. Not the cost to produce it.
I don't know about you, but I'm up to about 3 TB in my home network and I don't see flash replacing that economically any time soon. 128gb just isn't that exciting to me. I can see flash replacing disks for a lot of things, including computer operating system drives eventually. But I don't see them replacing volume storage. By the time flash 128gb drives are economical, hard disks will be in the 10 TB or more range for $150.
WDC has a 250 GB flash drive. However, they don't consider it economical except in OEM situations.
You may be right, but I find it hard to believe that in that long of a time period this business is incapable of adapting, and this business already seems to have that priced in at the moment. I don't love it, but I feel the value justifies this being a buy at current price. Time will tell.
SSDs still cost around 15x HDDs per GB. Looks like your graphs were dead wrong.Also, hybrid HDD/SSD drives could extend the life of HDD technology for decades more.
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