Alcoa, Inc. (AA)
A Producer of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina, and is active in all major aspects of the industry: technology, mining, refining, smelting, fabricating, and recycling.
Recs
Alcoa has been sinking fast in water since about half a year ago. They are lacking in technology and the means to do something about it. Poor management does not help at all. They are constantly being one-upped and their volume has tanked since there are better companies out their.
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no demand, overcapacity in the short term, long term demand from china
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Cutting jobs means trying to save whats left which isn't much.
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High cost production facilities in the upper quartile for the industry. burdened by marginally profitable and unprofitable downstream operations. Management mentality is too bureaucratic and established.
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With the lay-offs car production down I do foresee this stock making a strong comeback in March!
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Commodities are falling and have a way to go.
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Aluminum production uses a lot of electricity and the high price of electricity right now means that selling power on the open market can be more profitable than using it to make aluminum.
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Because I have a Sept 35 put and I'm not wishing AA well in the short term. It was a Schaeffer's recommendation and I would never reccomend Schaeffer's to my worst enemy. Their option advice has cost me thousands!!!!!!!!
Recs
Slightly over 1 percent sales growth in a worldwide materials and commodities boom is NOT a good sign.
24 percent decrease in earnings.
Increasing foreign competition with much lower labor rates and probably lower executive salaries as well.
Key insiders selling.
The technicals are a little mixed to bearish right now:
The AMEX Materials sector stocks are getting hammered and Alcoa when placed on a chart next to these SPDRs mimics them step for step (very bearish).
30 Day MA above the 10 Day MA (bearish).
Stock is being heavily distributed of late (bearish).
The down trend is of moderate strength (as opposed to weak or strong). You could say moderately bearish...
Since 6/20/08 the stock has been trending lower and on increasing volume (bearish).
The RSI was starting to turn up from the Overbought range and as of this writing it turned back down very slightly (bearish).
There are some positive: signs the Slow Stochastics turning up above the 20 line and a Hammer Candle stick just below the linear regression line. We will still need some confirmation.
Volitility is increasing and based on all of the above info; I see an increase in some more downside potential...
Sincerely,
WiredMotley
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Folks, it takes ALOT of energy to make aluminum, and energy is expensive right now. Expenses will soar - income will not.
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I'm actually quite bullish on Alcoa overall becuase of its strong foreign footprint, However, I'm forcasting the numbers regarding America's financial situation to be terrible in the summer. Therefore, I see investors itching to short all sectors duing business in the U.S. domestic market, including Alcoa. Alcoa, along with most other heavily domestic dependent stocks will ride the Dow down into the 11,000's this summer.
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Alcoa has saturated its market. All trucks already have Alcoa wheels. There are no new customers.... they need to totally rethink what they're doing NOW.
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FS = 31
Gamma = .5
Fundamentals bad, price overvalued.
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housing slumpo make aluminum go glumpo
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big jump today, but not expecting that to outpace the S&P 500
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cheaper oil means less market share in the aluminum container business
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AA doesn't seem to be able to make headway even in a decidedly bull market. What will they do when the worm turns? If you own any ( as I do ) I'd advise you to run, not walk, to the nearest exit.
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The employee thing...and slow housing.
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This company is bloated, bureaucratic and unable to prosper even when aluminum prices are at their peaks.
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Should be doing better. Poor earnings and raw material costs are higher.

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