+ Watch AAMRQ
on My Watchlist
It is conceivable this company will end up with a non-zero value after emerging from bankruptcy. But my best case scenario based on the shares they *might* receive during the parent liquidation gives this company a roughly 1.20/share value. 6.55/share is just market hysteria. Will have to look into what the borrow rate is for a real money short...
The CFO was already selling at $4. It is an airline even at scale they lose money.
“Investors should remember that their scorecard is not computed using Olympic-diving methods: Degree-of-difficulty doesn’t count." -- Warren Buffett"Why Warren Buffett May Be Wrong About Airlines" : fool.com/investing/general/2013/04/21/why-warren-buffett-may-be-wrong-about-airlines.aspx
Adding this pitch on 5/14/13, with this stock at $5.81. AAMRQ stockholders are expected to get 3.5% of the new company. At $5.81 a share, this means that the new company would have to be valued at $52 billion for this trade to break even. Airlines are doing well this year, but there is absolute no world in which the new American comes out of the gate as a $52 billion company. This stock is going to crash and burn.
consolidation will cause major changes. I believe while its bad for consumers it makes it easier to compete and eliminate routes that are not profitable. More fee's for wearing shoes, sneezing, wanting a seat with a cushion etc. are also coming
Can't wait for this volatile thing to snap back to reality. Neither can my player rating.It's been said numerous times already on here, but this stock is DEAD. The possible agreement allows AMR shareholders a 3.5% ownership stake in the new company if things play out well.As it has been previously calculated, these share may end up being worth $1 to $1.50 a share at the most. If you're long the stock and positive on points and/or money, get out while you can. Meanwhile, I'll keep my red thumb going and wait for the inevitable pullback.
Once its merger is complete with US Airways, American Airlines will dominate 70% of the airline industry. They have just been granted $3.25 billion in financing to emerge out of Chapter 11. Look for AAMRQ to rise to around $25 per share within two a year or so, paying a future dividend around $.25 within the next three years.
I like to play blackjack. I'm not addicted to gambling. I'm addicted to sitting in a semi-circle.Mitch Hedberg
Time to buy
Looks like the start to a kangaroo tail to me. Let the dumping begin!
This is a very closer runner up for the most interesting stock I've ever seen. The company is undergoing merger proceedings with US Air. The "Q" that's appended to the end of the ticker here is a bit misleading. Over the last three months the stock has literally shot up 750% seemingly from the advice of Mad Money host Jim Cramer. This may as well have been a pump-and-dump scheme. Oops!http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/03/07/why-cramer-is-wrong-about-the-americanus-airways-m.aspx?source=itxsitmot0000001&lidx=3What the dumb money doesn't realize here is that, like many other Fools have said, the shares of AAMRQ won't trade directly over to LCC at a 1:1 ratio; it will be more a 200:7. Ouch! That's a lot of lost equity. So it goes.The trends are showing potential for a pullback. I wonder if I'll have timed this right!
The largest Airlines is in the world will grow
I was wrong, wrong, oh-so-wrong. Typically the five-letter-Q-ending stocks have been the safest caps red thumbs - if it's heading for bankruptcy it's going to underperform, usually to nothing. But not this time.So now that there is a little clarity, I can get some idea of how wrong I was; here's my math:3.5% is the value (of the new company) going to AMR shareholders .035 * 11B = 385M - the justifiable AMR current market cap, right? Divided by 335.27M shares = $1.15 -> what a share is worth. That's why for now I will hold on to my hemorrhaging red thumb.
Over 1/3rd of AAMR's shares traded today after the merger announcement with US Air was confirmed. I would have liked to have been in on the downthumb on the $2.50 pop to get some instant margin.Overall, my timing may be off, or my math may be off. 90% (antedotally) of bankruptcy's end up with ZERO to shareholders. AAMR traded at a low of $0.43. Some in closedown have erratic share prices as penny stock speculators vie with shorts. Some in reorg merger, do come out with something for shareholders, but again this is rare.Some news reports cite a 3.5% conversion for AAMR shareholders. Math varies depending on how you adjust US Airways share price, debt of the two, and shares outstanding. My math is between $0.83 and $1.28 per share, so the $2.00 we are running at all afternoon just doesn't compute. But then again, 114 Million shares traded so far means people on both sides of the fence.I'm for a slow volume drop, and a settling. There is no doubt this will go to zero as the merger is finalized, but will shareholders get a paycheck? At what price?? Wish I had some $0.40 shares, but I wouldn't be holding them if I did.
Will be wiped out in bankruptcy settlement.
See the little 'Q' at the end of the ticker?That means the company is involved in bankruptcy proceedings.All equity is getting wiped out here. This stock is going to expire completely worthless.It is inevitable, no matter what irrational gyrations or spikes we might see in the stock price along the way.
Bankrupt Airline, which will be worth almost nothing when it exits bankruptcy.
From Forbes the morning of Feb 7:"The discussions are now at an advanced stage, with AMR Chief Executive Tom Horton, US Airways CEO Doug Parker, and a small circle of advisers negotiating the merger’s finer points. Under the deal’s current contours, American creditors would own roughly 72% of the airline and US Airways shareholders about 28%, people close to the discussions said."This clearly implies that current AAMRQ stockholders are going to get no part of the new entity. Yet - AAMRQ is up around 3% this morning to $1.28. What am I missing? I suspect I am not missing anything, but remain open to learning.bbmaven
With the bankruptcy, their debt load, and severely underfunded pension liabilities, I have a hard time believing this stock is worth any amount more than $0.00.
BATS data provided in real-time. NYSE, NASDAQ and NYSEMKT data delayed 15 minutes.
Real-Time prices provided by BATS. Market data provided by Interactive Data.
Company fundamental data provided by Morningstar. Earnings Estimates, Analyst Ratings and Key Statistics provided by Zacks.
SEC Filings and Insider Transactions provided by Edgar Online.
Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions. Terms & Conditions