Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (ABK)

go on abk

no cash, a lot of debt. and no business because no one is lending except the Fed on behalf of you and me. Do you think the Fed needs to insure the loans that it is purchasing? I don't.

I guess the market forgot that these sub-prime insurers were in trouble. It seems their "safe" market (muni's) are in trouble now too.

Ambac is going down to $1.90 in the short term. They will probably go lower but I will take my winnings and go buy a soda.

I should have bought this stock at $1.00 a share. I wasn't paying attention.

Going back down

Where the hell are the profits? There is a big conflict of interest in these rating agencies.

Ok so I am down over 100 on this one, but I dont care cause in the end I will be +100. Big deal they paid down some CDOs for a large amount... They have a lot more sketchy paper, and they are going to not be able to attract new business.

ABK and MBI are being carried by the Fed right now. As soon as inflation gets too big to ignore, short term interest rates will rise and defaults will rise with them as rates reset. The precurser to this is already occurring - auctions for auction-rate securities are being postponed right and left. What's more, Fitch recently announced that pretty much all muni issuers are getting a one or two step bump in their ratings (i.e. going forward, many more issuers will have AA or AAA ratings without the help of insurance). Which just illustrates the obvious: ABK and MBI, ultimately, offer a worthless product. It's window dressing. No future. Get out.

Aside from the above, there is a ton of paper out there insured by ABK that becomes callable if ABK's ratings drop. There has got to be a lot of political pressure on the ratings agencies right now to keep these insurers afloat. But what happens if defaults rise and they have to cover the losses with their undercapitalized balance sheet?

over-sized speculative jump. looking for a drop back below $3.

Is it possible for a stock to go to negative one dollar? ABK will tell me.

this is a typical us trash stock... worth nothing

This is a bond insurer that has a terrible subprime portfolio. $800 billion worth of subprime loans will reset in the second half of this year (2007). $18.7 billion worth of subprime loans are sitting on AMBAC's books. The exposure is equal to 284.4% of statutory capital. Leverage (Face Value Bonds/Statutory Capital) is 80.8 to 1. AMBAC's loss of AAA status in the debt markets deprives it of the ability to raise funds competitively, which means it will soon starve to death.

Thumbs down with MBIA.

From my short ideas/valuation screen

Ambac has a prove history of bad earnings. The stock is a loser, anyway you put it.

Unless federal gov't gets involved with bond insurance, this stock only has one place to go=UP. Look at the directors of the company for a confidence boost.....alll have purchased ABK stock within last 3 months.

Undercapitalized, probably won't the assets to cover the coming financial shakedown and margin calls.

Near all time low, riding with the bear market.