Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (ABK)

gonna try calling the bottom just for fun :)

This one has no where to go but up hopefully

For some reason, I feel that Buffet is more likely to buy this than MBIA (lower cap? closer to intrinsic value?) to back his company.

But the bear pitch by Jordan is great. The man is right--Moody's is all they have. These guys will fall a lot more before Buffet (or anyone) can get an intrinsic bargain on them.

Company has taken positive steps to start up a dormant subsidiary to write new policies upon receiving the AAA rating.

A buy back was annonced for some of the shares that were offered in early spring of 2008.

Insider buys continue and a newly appointed officer recently purchased open market call optios for $5, $7.5 and $10.

The insurance comisioner in NY, where they are HQ'd, looked upon the buy back favorably.

Fed. announced aid to Freddie and Fannie indirectly lends support to this company.

Over shorted, last squeeze got us to the $7.00 range.

I guess the market forgot that these sub-prime insurers were in trouble. It seems their "safe" market (muni's) are in trouble now too.

I just sold this stock after the previous run up a couple days ago, thinking it was going to go down. Man Have I been kicking myself now! I I think this stock has great potential, financials may be volatile, but they are currently at bargain basement prices! Good time to get in!

I belive in this stock

Did homework here..... this will be the next 7 bagger this year .....just take 1 hr and review this thing from the ground up and take into the account the news posted in the last 12 hrs missed buy in at 11.65 but still got in very cheap...may be rocky next month but the hole thing is nothing but up from there....there will be a 2 to 4 gap up come Monday morning

This is a bond insurer that has a terrible subprime portfolio. They just fired their CEO and slashed their dividend. I don't have hopes for a bright future with this stock.

If ABK can get it's subsidiary Connie Lee a AAA credit rating to write new business we should see a parabolic move. I think we can see a triple in the short term. Strucutred Credit is a four letter word these days. Long Term - As we regain stability in the credit markets ABK will be regain its footing. Risk/Reward i think this can be used as an entry point.

Disclosure: alphabound owns shares of ABK

Fannie/Freddie bailout leaves Ambac with sure-bet cash. Once they accumulate more capital and outstanding mortgage debt gets restructured and/or backstopped by the Fed, they will get their credit ratings raised and Ambac will be a viable business again.

Cramer, Financial sector rotation

If you believe things are cyclical, I think that getting in on Ambac at below $8 could be a wise move for a stock you plan on holding onto. I may be wrong, but eventually, we will pull out of this recession?, we are heading towards and the banks will be able to lend money to new home buyers again. While I am not buying a ton of this (100 shares), I do think that within the next 5 years we will see this stock back at $100ps or higher. I just hope my speculation pays off.

insurer

ABK will be saved by lower interest rates. The faster the Fed lower ratest the better. Most ARMs reset off of short term 1 month libor + something.. i.e. 1.8 to 3%. If libor drops to 3% (Which it probably will) the resets on those ARMS will result in fewer defaults. In addition, the holders of those loans will be more willing to renegotiate with the borrowers at lower interest rate resets simply because they will be giving up less profit. And, finally, when libor is at 3%, any payments which ABK must pay will be at a lower rate. There is a reason that the current large shareholders are unwilling to sell ABK stock at $6/share. It is worth much more then that. I am also quite certain that ABK is scrambling to raise $1B somehow so that they can regain their AAA rating.

This is an experimental portfolio consisting of small-cap or larger picks that have recently entered the $1.50-3.00 range (favoring the low end), with the theory being that most stocks entering this range are not going to stay there unless they've been there for a while already.

Confidence will improve

Like shooting fish in a barrel. Rated as underperform for one year, because that is how long the company will last.