$1.86

-0.34 (-15.45%)

11/21/2008 4:00 PM

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR)

CAPS Rating:

A real estate finance company which invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multi-family and commercial real estate markets.

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Ticker Not Ratable

ABR doesn't currently meet the $100M market cap / $1.50 stock price minimum. (Learn More)

What the Community Thinks

Total Members

204 Outperforms

18 Underperforms

All-Stars

18 Outperforms

6 Underperforms

Wall Street

3 Outperforms

1 Underperforms

Members bullish on ABR are also bullish on:

Members bearish on ABR are also bearish on:

Ticker Tags

Micro Cap (5043), Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) (169)
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Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. At A Glance

Current Price:	$1.86
Last Trade Time:	11/21/2008 4:00 PM
Open:	$1.89
Previous Close:	$2.20
Daily Range:	$1.77 - $2.15
52-Week Range:	$1.81 - $19.20
Volume:	325,302
Market Cap:	$55.33M
P/E Ratio:	1.10
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Stock Trends

ABR VS S&P 500 (SPY)

News & Discussion Boards

Other News Headlines for ABR

Arbor Realty stock up following 2nd-quarter report
8/11/2008 6:40:00 PM - AP
Arbor Realty Trust sets regular quarterly dividend
7/28/2008 1:12:00 PM - AP
Arbor Realty sets quarterly dividend of 62 cents
4/29/2008 4:08:00 PM - AP
Trade Group Says Commercial Loans Safe
3/10/2008 6:50:00 PM - AP

More Headlines...

Top Bull Pitch

Recs

8 Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR)

Avatar srwm4 (98.76) Submitted: 8/12/08 7:05 PM

A very solid dividend (now more than 21%), and a book value in the $18 neighborhood. This should be a screaming buy.

...if not for the fact that management is trying as hard as possible to avoid mark-to-market, even when it comes to the detriment of tax liability. Any time management is...More

Replies: 0 | Reply | Permalink

A very solid dividend (now more than 21%), and a book value in the $18 neighborhood. This should be a screaming buy.

...if not for the fact that management is trying as hard as possible to avoid mark-to-market, even when it comes to the detriment of tax liability. Any time management is that focused on finding loopholes in GAAP, you need to discount book value by at least 50%.

However, in the near-term, Arbor will see great profits in swaps, due to LIBOR rates. This might be the thing that also kills them next year, when rates eventually will begin to rise, though, as the vast majority of their leverage is floating.

Ultimately, you have to assume that their 21% dividend will remain to make this even worth considering. Given management's view on the importance of stable dividends - even if it means having to lever themselves further in the near-term - I think this is a reasonable assumption at this point.

The crane incident in NYC will be a huge win for Arbor, though. The liability of this incident would have put the previous owners deep in the hole in terms of equity, inducing them to walk away from the property to the benefit of Arbor, who (it appears) will receive a clean title at the end of the foreclosure process. This, combined with other (mainly seasonal) adjustments will help Arbor's numbers a great deal in the next few quarters.

In the final analysis, the question is: "Does Arbor deserve to trade at only a 30% premium to book value (assuming we adjust book value down 50% due to sleazy management)"? I believe they deserve a higher premium than that, as growth outlooks should increase in the next 1-3 years, and given management's (possibly misplaced) commitment to a stable dividend in the interim.

My price target for Arbor in the next year is $16. I figure the dividend will remain stable, and the seasonal adjustments, combined with positive effects of the completion of the crane building foreclosure, and subsequent liquidation of that asset, will lead the market to punish book value a bit more softly.

Top Bear Pitch

Recs

1 Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR)

Avatar Rep07 (99.01) Submitted: 6/23/08 2:47 PM

Bear market esp. for financials; more damage to come.

Replies: 0 | Reply | Permalink

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Recs 0 (ABR) dpid (< 20) Submitted: 11/13/08 4:41 PM : Start Price: $4.24 ABR Score: 40.94 reit Report this Post Replies: 0 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out. Recs 0 (ABR) pripps (< 20) Submitted: 11/10/08 2:20 PM : Start Price: $4.16 ABR Score: -37.57 This stocks looks undervalued. This stock should bounce back as soon the credid crisis comes to an end. Report this Post Replies: 0 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out. Recs 0 (ABR) OtherOracleOfOMA (66.52) Submitted: 11/07/08 6:09 PM : Start Price: $4.24 ABR Score: -35.85 OK, this is trading at less than a quarter of its book value. Even the most bearish of the bears don't think apartment and commercial real estate values will fall to less than a quarter of their current levels. While we're waiting for the recovery, I'll sit back and get fat off the dividend. Report this Post Replies: 1 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out. Recs 0 (ABR) EPS100Momentum (< 20) Submitted: 11/04/08 10:23 AM : Start Price: $4.23 ABR Score: -32.47 Bear market bargain, Extreme oversold condition. Report this Post Replies: 1 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out. Recs 0 (ABR) MoneyDocSchloss (< 20) Submitted: 10/31/08 10:54 AM : Start Price: $3.39 ABR Score: -24.52 Regresses to 10... at least Report this Post Replies: 0 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out.
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Wall Street

Results 1 - 4 of 4

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Top Pick	Member Name	Member Rating	Start Date	Call	Time Frame	Start Price	Stock Gain	S&P Gain	Score	Pitch
	TrackCitigroup	< 20	03/05/08		NS	$12.88	-85.56%	-43.16%	+42.40
	TrackSchneider	< 20	09/30/07		NS	$15.18	-87.74%	-50.30%	-37.44
	TrackJMP	< 20	02/13/07		NS	$24.74	-92.48%	-47.25%	-45.23
	TrackCohenBros	65.80	08/30/06		NS	$18.75	-90.08%	-42.05%	-48.03

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