Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR)

This stocks looks undervalued. This stock should bounce back as soon the credid crisis comes to an end.

OK, this is trading at less than a quarter of its book value. Even the most bearish of the bears don't think apartment and commercial real estate values will fall to less than a quarter of their current levels. While we're waiting for the recovery, I'll sit back and get fat off the dividend.

Dividend player

INSANE dumping.
If those who short this at less than 2 p/e and 40% yield think they can bring down this company - it is simply absurd.
The company makes and will make money.
If the bears haven't learnt anything about a short squeeze on JP Morgan this Monday when the stock went up 80% and all these stupid little bears who tried to take down this symbol of Wall Street for no apparent reason got slaughtered - beware. This will happen to you here also. Shorting this stock at 17-20 bucks - fine, but this is simply stupid at these levels.
The cheapness gets noticed... and will be picked up in a bullish rally.

Also - some hedge fund was dumping this stock today like there was no tomorrow.

It also looked like some price engineering may be going on.
There is constantly 40-50% of shorts and pretty odd trades. well, Bush's SEC is asleep anyway.

Regardless - this stock will rally up - make no mistake about it.
I will enjoy my dividend :)

The company will still do great in this real estate downturn.
Should be at least 15 p/e (and "e" in this is pretty well known)
IT IS AT LESS THAN 2 NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Besides p/e - it's cash available and yield...

outperform short term

Abr is depressed artificially becuase of the market drop this should be over 11.00 within 4 weeks to 2 months, high eps!

I agree with srwm4. People need to stop looking at the dividend as the only thing good about Arbor. If Arbor had just dropped the dividend the volatility in this stock would stop being such a problem.

A very solid dividend (now more than 21%), and a book value in the $18 neighborhood. This should be a screaming buy.

...if not for the fact that management is trying as hard as possible to avoid mark-to-market, even when it comes to the detriment of tax liability. Any time management is that focused on finding loopholes in GAAP, you need to discount book value by at least 50%.

However, in the near-term, Arbor will see great profits in swaps, due to LIBOR rates. This might be the thing that also kills them next year, when rates eventually will begin to rise, though, as the vast majority of their leverage is floating.

Ultimately, you have to assume that their 21% dividend will remain to make this even worth considering. Given management's view on the importance of stable dividends - even if it means having to lever themselves further in the near-term - I think this is a reasonable assumption at this point.

The crane incident in NYC will be a huge win for Arbor, though. The liability of this incident would have put the previous owners deep in the hole in terms of equity, inducing them to walk away from the property to the benefit of Arbor, who (it appears) will receive a clean title at the end of the foreclosure process. This, combined with other (mainly seasonal) adjustments will help Arbor's numbers a great deal in the next few quarters.

In the final analysis, the question is: "Does Arbor deserve to trade at only a 30% premium to book value (assuming we adjust book value down 50% due to sleazy management)"? I believe they deserve a higher premium than that, as growth outlooks should increase in the next 1-3 years, and given management's (possibly misplaced) commitment to a stable dividend in the interim.

My price target for Arbor in the next year is $16. I figure the dividend will remain stable, and the seasonal adjustments, combined with positive effects of the completion of the crane building foreclosure, and subsequent liquidation of that asset, will lead the market to punish book value a bit more softly.

Unmatched divedend... if it stays high, so will the stock

I love the way the long pitch, as you look back at the messages preceding this one, always state the dividend as a reason to buy, and that dividend they cite gets smaller and smaller as you go back in time. In the spirit of tradition, Golly you can't beat the 25% dividend. I've got real money on this.

They weathered this far... Plus Div too high and PE too low to stay away. P/B < 1.

Hmm, let's see: 17 percent sustainable dividend, and a short interest ratio of over 30 days. Strong management, good profitability, and limited exposure to sub-prime.

In the most recent earnings call, CEO discussed that they are being very conservative in originating new loans in order to increase capital and liquidity. Thus, short term results are likely to be mediocre (but that is already priced in!)

Buy, wait for the financial mess to clear, and in the meantime collect some ridiculous dividend cash.

This stock has a current dividend of 17.5% and will be able to hold this dividend througout the year. With the dividend return and the price ending the year around $18 this is a solid investment that will produce great returns. The stock may drop back down to the $13.50 level but i wouldnt count on it. Buy now at $14.

"You ought to be able to explain why you’re taking the job you’re taking, why you’re making the investment you’re making, or whatever it may be. And if it can’t stand applying pencil to paper, you’d better think it through some more. And if you can’t write an intelligent answer to those questions, don’t do it."

Real Estate. . . has it hit bottom. . my money says that commercial has. . .

Strong mgmt in commercial REIT market; negative perception overdone.

High dividend reit that looks to be surviving the subprime crunch.

This stock has great potential to return to its 52 week high and then some. The management team is solid and the dividens are good.