Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACHN)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company focuses on the discovery, development and commercialization of innovative treatments for infectious diseases

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Member Avatar pchop12316 (34.98) Submitted: 6/22/2015 11:07:53 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.75 ACHN Score: +0.47

stock has the right stuff to excel

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.83) Submitted: 6/22/2015 1:10:12 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.81 ACHN Score: -0.45

I hadn't realized I didn't have an outperform rating on Achillion, which is a no-no considering that the zzporte portfolio owns 1000 shares with cost basis 11.14. Fortunately for my CAPS rating, I didn't green thumb it when we first started buying in the 12's.

Achillion is a sore spot for me as I once accumulated ten thousand with a cost basis of 3.35, went red, and sold all of them in the mid 4's for what seemed like a decent profit. Unfortunately, the stock proceeded into the 13's meaning I had left about 100K on the table. Ouch. Buying back again at the highs and watching the share price degrade is just salt in the wound, although the scale is much smaller. Because of these mis-steps, I'm at high risk for making errors simply in order to turn our current losing position in Achillion into a winning one. That's probably the main reason I'll continue to increase our position if the stock drops back below 8.5, even though I don't have a good feel for where the floor might be.

It's clear now that Achillion reached its peak because of buyout speculation after the Idenix shocker, and the momentum money is leaving now that it appears that the company has licensed its pipeline away on disappointing terms. J&J's upfront payment came in the form of an equity investment over 12. However, it's not entirely clear whether J&J saw the company as being worth that price or they simply agreed to pay a premium to avoid a cash upfront payment. It's difficult to valuate Achillion given the complexity of the J&J deal, so I'll simply follow the chart and try to find a bottom to help exit the position with a win or at least a reduced loss.

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Member Avatar patfactorx (< 20) Submitted: 2/26/2015 12:31:40 PM : Outperform Start Price: $12.47 ACHN Score: -29.26

Hot momentum stock in the Biotech sector. Great way to pick up the strength in the Biotechs.

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Member Avatar km00nster (< 20) Submitted: 2/23/2015 10:00:15 PM : Outperform Start Price: $12.63 ACHN Score: -30.27

A takeout target that looks like it's going higher.

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Member Avatar TerryFool (76.31) Submitted: 2/13/2015 2:14:28 PM : Outperform Start Price: $9.88 ACHN Score: -14.35

BP 10 TP 20

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Member Avatar Jordrok (98.25) Submitted: 2/4/2015 12:12:26 PM : Underperform Start Price: $12.36 ACHN Score: +31.79

No revenues yet.

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Member Avatar atlas1701 (73.46) Submitted: 9/30/2014 3:58:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.00 ACHN Score: -19.28

Take out play. ACHN has interesting products and good data, pretty high risk but substantial upside.

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Member Avatar rcwcfa (< 20) Submitted: 6/11/2014 8:53:45 PM : Underperform Start Price: $7.25 ACHN Score: -11.84

The company's entire net worth is due to last year's financing. The company will continue to lose cash and financial flexibility unless it gets bought out. Given the performance recently, I expect the stock to drop back down to $4.

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Member Avatar genedom (98.53) Submitted: 3/11/2014 11:43:12 PM : Underperform Start Price: $3.15 ACHN Score: -161.11

No future

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Member Avatar HarHarMahadev (< 20) Submitted: 2/4/2014 12:02:15 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.33 ACHN Score: +139.49

Lot of Institutional buying recently..

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Member Avatar whoodatstockhot (93.48) Submitted: 9/30/2013 12:50:22 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.94 ACHN Score: +168.50

One of the best buying opportunites I've seen all year. Stonrg pipeline of hepatitis C medicines in its portfolio.

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Member Avatar fatmoneyrz (99.26) Submitted: 9/30/2013 9:47:42 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.50 ACHN Score: +121.47

This is a best in breed, but volatile one, which should head right back up. Take advantage of the sell offs

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Member Avatar rknapton (< 20) Submitted: 7/23/2013 8:10:16 PM : Underperform Start Price: $7.18 ACHN Score: +2.61

Short. Biopharma. Big insider selling. 6000x P/S . Last 3 years cash flow from selling stock: 44M, 61M, 72M. (Much more than investing activities).

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Member Avatar Fishbolb (76.70) Submitted: 10/16/2012 6:42:19 PM : Underperform Start Price: $10.78 ACHN Score: +62.76

Late to the Hep C game.

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Member Avatar getrichslowfool (< 20) Submitted: 1/13/2012 3:21:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $12.32 ACHN Score: -91.33

Yeah it's run up a bunch recently, but I think IDIX will get bought out and this will run up more with it. Time will tell

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Member Avatar jamescraigjones (< 20) Submitted: 10/19/2011 10:43:10 AM : Outperform Start Price: $6.22 ACHN Score: -30.82

It is clear to see that the Hep C market will be exploding in the next year to 3 years as developers continue to improve on the technology and pipelines. Regardless of how the sector or the overall market is performing, you cant ignore the kind of money that this market will tap into.

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Member Avatar EclecticRecluse (80.70) Submitted: 5/25/2011 10:01:35 AM : Underperform Start Price: $5.87 ACHN Score: +10.67

Low Sales and Return on Equity

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Member Avatar THEMATHISNEAR (< 20) Submitted: 2/17/2011 10:24:28 AM : Underperform Start Price: $5.99 ACHN Score: +23.73

Shorting a bunch of biotechs that have run up for no reason. Yes, I expect one to pop, and don't know which one, but I expect that most will fail outright, and the group as a whole will fail to match the S&P.

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Member Avatar poorbastard2011 (< 20) Submitted: 1/14/2011 7:04:28 AM : Outperform Start Price: $5.04 ACHN Score: +8.51

Long Term Bullish Breakout
Short Term Upward Sloping Trading Channel
Short Term Bullish Breakout

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Member Avatar NetscribePhrmtcl (97.84) Submitted: 3/20/2007 8:42:53 AM : Underperform Start Price: $7.06 ACHN Score: +28.77

Achillion is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of treatments for infectious diseases. Within the anti-infective market, the company concentrates on the development of antivirals and antibacterials. It is targeting the antiviral development efforts on treatments for HIV infection and chronic hepatitis C, and is directing its antibacterial development efforts toward treatments for serious hospital-based bacterial infections.

Its two lead drug candidates are Elvucitabine, which is in the Phase II clinical trials in HIV-infected patients, and ACH-806, which the company is evaluating in collaboration with Gilead Sciences in a Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C. The company is also evaluating its third drug candidate, ACH-702, in late-stage, pre-clinical studies for the treatment of serious hospital-based bacterial infections.

Revenues witnessed a sharp 91% decline for the quarter ended September 2006. The decrease in 2006 is the result of a reduction in milestone payments under collaboration with Gilead Sciences. Net loss applicable to common shareholders increased 71%, reflecting a sharp increase in R&D expenses and administrative costs. The company has incurred losses of $100 million from inception to September 2006 and had an accumulated deficit of $113.6 million through September 30, 2006.

Achillion appears to be a weak investment proposition based on the delay in the expected development timeline for the HIV & HCV program. The launch of a replicase inhibitor for HCV is expected to be in 2011, rather than 2010, which would hamper the company’s near term earning prospects.

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