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I wish I could have gotten my green thumb in on AcelRx when I actually bought 3000 shares at 2.95 for the GBMB on August 22, but Motley Fool was protecting you from learning about interesting stocks that don't meet an arbitrary threshold of share price x median three month volume. I guess anyone who wants the full story can follow me on Twitter.AcelRx is developing sublingual opiate tablets for various pain indications. Three phase III trials of ARX-01 sublingual sufentanil NanoTabs as post-operative PCA are currently in progress, with topline data from two of those trials expected in Q4 2012. You might have read my criticisms of pain drug developers before, as they have a horrible long-term track record as investments, but shhhhhh. When word gets out about a phase III catalyst in the short-term, pumpers come out from under their rocks and reason and logic go out the window. AcelRx has mostly operated under the radar, with low trading volumes since the IPO in February 2011 and a market cap under 100M. The share price cracked 4.5 in mid 2011 but dropped under 2 at the end of 2011 before the early 2012 small cap bull market took over. I think I got in at a good price, but the stock is a little harder to recommend at this level. I'm opening the green thumb now to document the trade and also because I think there's a potential to go over 4 before the phase III data. This isn't a bad bet for positive data since one phase III trial compares ARX-01 to placebo and the other has an endpoint of non-inferiority to morphine PCA. However, I was burnt on a similar assumption with BioDelivery Sciences last year and so hopefully I'll be out of the trade before the catalyst.Long-term , I think AcelRx has fairly lousy prospects based on the empiric performance of pain stocks and my intuition that cheap generics are doing an adequate job for PCA.
High insider ownership and analyst forecasts that the company will lose less money this year than it did last year.
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