Adobe Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

The Company offers a line of creative, business and mobile software and services used by high-end consumers, creative professionals, designers, knowledge workers, original equipment manufacturers developers and enterprises.

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Member Avatar foolwithfamily (< 20) Submitted: 7/16/2015 6:19:32 AM : Underperform Start Price: $82.65 ADBE Score: -1.26

P/E over 100, P/S close to 10, with a 40 billion USD market cap. No, thanks.

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Member Avatar davidm9999 (57.09) Submitted: 4/1/2015 8:42:09 AM : Underperform Start Price: $73.61 ADBE Score: -10.29

Poor fundamentals means this software company is overpriced and due for a drop to $28/share

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Member Avatar JoeCool4343 (< 20) Submitted: 3/25/2015 3:32:34 PM : Outperform Start Price: $73.22 ADBE Score: +10.77

Government Focus

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Member Avatar thumbsUpFool (97.47) Submitted: 3/12/2015 11:19:44 PM : Underperform Start Price: $77.18 ADBE Score: -5.61

I am not a naysayer or a doomsday predictor. This market is in new territory though, and it WILL come down sooner, rather than later. There are two strong predictors of serious crashes and those are the Shiller PE (CAPE) and Warren Buffet's favorite Mkt Cap to GNP. The CAPE goes back further, so let's look at that. There have only been three times before now that the CAPE (price to last 10 yr avg earnings or "Cyclically Adjusted PE) has soared past 25x. The Great Depression, The Dot Com boom, and the Housing Boom. All three times the market plummeted back down. The average 3 yr annualized return following these peaks averages about -19%. High PE and negative PE stocks will be absolutely obliterated, and this is one of those. I am calculating based on historical averages that the likelihood the crash has already begun is 27%. It's still more in the markets favor than not that the climb will continue, but each month that passes will eventually tip that in the other direction. So where are we going? I don't know, I can only go on history, and history does not always repeat itself exactly the same way. I do know though that I have made many successful stock picks based on books I've read and my personal experiences. History was the sole basis of every one of these books and every one of the decisions I made...When will the drop occur? Again, I don't know, I can only guess based on the averages of the amount of time it has taken in the past. In the Great Depression, after the CAPE reached 25, the crash happened within approx 300 days. The market during the dotcom and housing booms started its decline more than 4 years after reaching 25x. It will most likely be somewhere in between but this is one of only 4 data points so many outcomes are possible. I'm thumbsupfool, why the hell am I giving a thumbs down? Because this is a seriously overvalued time. One of the greatest in US market history.

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Member Avatar Tophinater (24.65) Submitted: 10/28/2014 1:16:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $67.72 ADBE Score: +15.00

I'm just guessing.

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Member Avatar asilverp (41.34) Submitted: 8/28/2014 11:03:42 AM : Underperform Start Price: $71.36 ADBE Score: -10.54

This is an extremely high risk company to invest in. the P/S, P/B and P/E are all extremely high. Adobe is a good company, but a few bad quarters could send it spiralling downward.

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Member Avatar TMFNinjaPanda (57.77) Submitted: 8/27/2014 7:22:31 PM : Outperform Start Price: $71.23 ADBE Score: +10.57

There is no replacement for Adobe CC for the moment.

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Member Avatar Kenji94 (43.52) Submitted: 8/14/2014 7:39:00 AM : Underperform Start Price: $69.89 ADBE Score: -10.43

Price growing faster than fundamentals.

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Member Avatar hba24 (93.67) Submitted: 5/20/2014 8:50:02 AM : Outperform Start Price: $62.12 ADBE Score: +20.80

Top software company--no sign of them losing their competitive advantage anytime soon.

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Member Avatar jtallenmd (99.78) Submitted: 4/28/2014 4:38:44 PM : Underperform Start Price: $60.57 ADBE Score: -23.34

Volatility can be your friend. I estimate an intrinsic value of about $21. ADBE is currently trading at three times that value.

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Member Avatar landda02 (56.57) Submitted: 3/24/2014 5:44:52 PM : Underperform Start Price: $65.83 ADBE Score: -12.68

Profits have decreased significantly over the past year and a half while the share price has risen over 60% during the same time. Lots of excitement about their monthly subscription plans, but they are a long way off from their 2012 profit levels.

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Member Avatar OregonPam (< 20) Submitted: 2/1/2014 12:06:17 PM : Outperform Start Price: $59.08 ADBE Score: +20.97

ADBE is a market leader with no significant competition when it comes to reliable high end quality. They are a staple of business communications. As the world becomes increasingly electronic, their market share is destined to grow.

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Member Avatar AUTigerFool (< 20) Submitted: 12/16/2013 8:25:13 AM : Underperform Start Price: $60.63 ADBE Score: -18.24

This stock is overvalued and ADBE is no cloud provider

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Member Avatar DJoshuaRubin (97.81) Submitted: 11/16/2013 9:02:01 AM : Outperform Start Price: $57.04 ADBE Score: +27.11

Creative Cloud better than I thought. Can't see anyone replacing this suite in a major way anytime soon. Not a big fan of Premiere Elements, which I use at work - God awful ugly user interface, but some great features.

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Member Avatar rubblebath (40.41) Submitted: 7/30/2013 1:33:46 PM : Underperform Start Price: $47.32 ADBE Score: -47.22

This stock is quite expensive right now. Priced for rapid growth, but the income statements show only limited growth. As a long time user of their products, I can't help but think they're getting careless and lazy atop the creative software throne.

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Member Avatar fewl10 (< 20) Submitted: 7/7/2013 8:36:35 AM : Underperform Start Price: $47.03 ADBE Score: -45.03

Being dumped hand over fist by insiders.

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Member Avatar Lean357 (61.21) Submitted: 6/26/2013 11:27:14 AM : Outperform Start Price: $45.70 ADBE Score: +46.57

So many great tools offered by them, audio visual suites. More courses based on Adobe softwares. Can't go wrong

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Member Avatar WildTing (68.88) Submitted: 6/24/2013 12:35:51 PM : Outperform Start Price: $43.63 ADBE Score: +52.08

I actually like the subscription model... it allows me to get in at a lower price point vs buying a $600 piece of software.

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Member Avatar paek813 (99.70) Submitted: 5/22/2013 3:10:22 PM : Underperform Start Price: $43.11 ADBE Score: -61.48

S&P Star Ranking is 11

S&P Fair Value Rank is 1 (grossly overvalued)

S&P Earnings & Dividend Rank is B+

Relative Strength is 46

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Member Avatar TMFMuse (91.29) Submitted: 5/7/2013 11:03:19 AM : Outperform Start Price: $45.44 ADBE Score: +49.54

Already an essential provider of creative software with a huge moat, Adobe announced today that it will be switching all customers to a subscription model. This is huge - a better business model, and, from my perspective as a consumer, a better experience. Win-win, and while people hate change and may have negative knee-jerk reactions to the new model, they'll come around. It's a better, more integrated suite of products at a better price. Love it. Bodes well for Adobe's future!

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