Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

A design software and services company, which offers solutions to customers in the architectural, engineering, construction, manufacturing, infrastructure and digital media markets.

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Member Avatar thumbsUpFool (97.56) Submitted: 3/12/2015 11:22:52 PM : Underperform Start Price: $59.88 ADSK Score: +0.73

I am not a naysayer or a doomsday predictor. This market is in new territory though, and it WILL come down sooner, rather than later. There are two strong predictors of serious crashes and those are the Shiller PE (CAPE) and Warren Buffet's favorite Mkt Cap to GNP. The CAPE goes back further, so let's look at that. There have only been three times before now that the CAPE (price to last 10 yr avg earnings or "Cyclically Adjusted PE) has soared past 25x. The Great Depression, The Dot Com boom, and the Housing Boom. All three times the market plummeted back down. The average 3 yr annualized return following these peaks averages about -19%. High PE and negative PE stocks will be absolutely obliterated, and this is one of those. I am calculating based on historical averages that the likelihood the crash has already begun is 27%. It's still more in the markets favor than not that the climb will continue, but each month that passes will eventually tip that in the other direction. So where are we going? I don't know, I can only go on history, and history does not always repeat itself exactly the same way. I do know though that I have made many successful stock picks based on books I've read and my personal experiences. History was the sole basis of every one of these books and every one of the decisions I made...When will the drop occur? Again, I don't know, I can only guess based on the averages of the amount of time it has taken in the past. In the Great Depression, after the CAPE reached 25, the crash happened within approx 300 days. The market during the dotcom and housing booms started its decline more than 4 years after reaching 25x. It will most likely be somewhere in between but this is one of only 4 data points so many outcomes are possible. I'm thumbsupfool, why the hell am I giving a thumbs down? Because this is a seriously overvalued time. One of the greatest in US market history.

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Member Avatar AhiyaHiya (< 20) Submitted: 2/7/2015 11:43:22 PM : Outperform Start Price: $56.83 ADSK Score: +3.70

Autodesk is making more applications that are available on most platforms: desktop, mobile and on the web. The application performance and features will make these applications appealing to artists and designers whose only option before was from Adobe.

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Member Avatar regotoguy (99.61) Submitted: 11/21/2014 1:18:18 PM : Underperform Start Price: $62.24 ADSK Score: +4.78

Valuation is high. Must have caught some shorts off guard.

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Member Avatar TMFCavalier (76.22) Submitted: 9/19/2014 2:25:29 PM : Outperform Start Price: $55.16 ADSK Score: +4.84

Listened to Andrew Hessel present at The Motley Fool's Writer Conference. He spoke broadly on his vision for the future of synthetic biology and genetic engineering. There is an extremely wide range of applications, from genetically modified foods to creating individualized medicines/treatments. Very exciting stuff! His work at Autodesk is focused on making this vision a reality at both a quicker and cheaper rate than it might otherwise happen.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-03-20/andrew-hessels-autodesk-team-seeks-crowdsourced-cancer-cure

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Member Avatar asilverp (67.54) Submitted: 8/29/2014 11:59:46 AM : Underperform Start Price: $54.14 ADSK Score: -6.88

fundamentals indicate you probably should stay away, even IF momentum and relative strength on their side.

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Member Avatar TheLongView4u (57.43) Submitted: 8/18/2014 4:55:24 PM : Outperform Start Price: $53.95 ADSK Score: +5.79

good qtr then pulled back

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Member Avatar Kenji94 (60.35) Submitted: 8/16/2014 10:25:42 AM : Underperform Start Price: $55.99 ADSK Score: -0.20

Overvalued stock!

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Member Avatar brightdusk1 (59.15) Submitted: 5/28/2014 11:41:58 PM : Outperform Start Price: $51.88 ADSK Score: +6.93

I like the fact that Autodesk are getting involved in 3D Printing, which is why I'm giving them the thumbs up at the moment.

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Member Avatar RareFruitGrower (91.49) Submitted: 3/25/2014 8:50:19 PM : Outperform Start Price: $49.85 ADSK Score: +8.87

I think we are going to hit $55 before earnings come up, why is there a massive rotation out of software stocks that have proven their earnings power? I think the risk-reward ratio is low on the risk end, good luck!

$60 by October!

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Member Avatar Har1en (99.37) Submitted: 2/24/2014 2:41:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $54.70 ADSK Score: -2.61

In the new world, digital plans will become more and more important. It makes sense they have growth ahead as the 3d printer market expands and industry finds uses for the new tech.

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Member Avatar tjwheel1967 (47.43) Submitted: 12/27/2013 7:30:18 PM : Outperform Start Price: $49.60 ADSK Score: +7.55

Autodesk has the software for 3d printing which will be used by all customers of 3d shops whether commercial or individuals.

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Member Avatar gavinbarclay (79.93) Submitted: 10/5/2013 3:50:34 AM : Outperform Start Price: $41.93 ADSK Score: +18.63

They are well positioned to take advantage of emerging trends among manufacturing. In today's uncertain market, businesses are scared to commit high capex in order to sustain short term growth spurts. Their switch to subscription based software is a smart move and should better capitalize on market demand. I'm looking for their numbers to turn around significantly over the next year.

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Member Avatar Magicflight (< 20) Submitted: 3/19/2013 7:54:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $40.53 ADSK Score: +13.99

Decades of CAD experience and customer support. Relatively little-talked about innovator in 3-D printing industry. Reasonable P/E compared to DDD and SSYS.

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Member Avatar dion2727 (37.85) Submitted: 3/3/2013 12:13:01 PM : Outperform Start Price: $33.97 ADSK Score: +45.33

will significantly outperform/will be tied to the software aspects of 3dprinting

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Member Avatar aerialist (48.12) Submitted: 2/25/2013 7:48:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $35.92 ADSK Score: +27.93

ADSK will eventually be a major 3d printer.

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Member Avatar TheAmerican7676 (< 20) Submitted: 2/14/2013 2:30:49 PM : Outperform Start Price: $38.65 ADSK Score: +18.40

Part of the 3D sector play in programming and software applicationst

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Member Avatar bluealpaka (34.67) Submitted: 8/22/2012 4:52:03 AM : Outperform Start Price: $34.68 ADSK Score: +25.68

Besides basically having a monopoly in the movie visual effects and 3D game modelling industries, Autodesk in well positioned to profit from the next big thing, 3D printing.

The company also works hard on maintaining its dominance: Since they give most of their software away for free to students, most people in the relevant industries have experience with their software.

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Member Avatar WilliamCrook2003 (71.32) Submitted: 7/26/2012 5:13:11 PM : Outperform Start Price: $33.91 ADSK Score: +24.74

MF stock of the day.

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Member Avatar Archadam1 (< 20) Submitted: 5/21/2012 11:50:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $31.76 ADSK Score: +31.51

As a professional user of Autodesk software (AutoCAD, Revit Architecture, and 3DS Max), I can honestly say that Autodesk has the most advanced professional software for the AEC industry. Revit in particular is light years ahead of any other BIM technology, and pushing the entire industry in a more efficient direction. I regularly communicate with Autodesk Revit support and they are very responsive to the needs of the practitioner. Their subscription costs are high, but as with any technology, it costs to be on the cutting edge, and we are quickly coming into a world where software is becoming much more $$ than hardware, so it really is to be expected.

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Member Avatar 1Ning (< 20) Submitted: 11/15/2011 2:34:55 PM : Outperform Start Price: $34.29 ADSK Score: +9.81

ADSK has wide moat with enduring customer stickiness. To deem a company lisk Adobe as main compettitor is a mistake. Architects and engineers will perpetually use AutoCAD and BIM as standard applications for the construction industry. Although emerging market growth is compelling, boot leg is a hurdle to cross as Asian do not value intellectual properties.

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