American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

The Company designs, markets and sells its own brand of laidback, current clothing targeting 15 to 25 year-olds, providing high-quality merchandise at affordable prices.

AEO News and Commentary

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All Players

2,064 Outperform
161 Underperform
 

All-Star Players

534 Outperform
34 Underperform
 

Wall Street

27 Outperform
4 Underperform
 

Top AEO Bull/Bear Pitches

The best Bull and Bear pitches based on recency and number of recommendations.

TMF1000 (99.77)
Submitted May 30, 2017

I believe that Amercan Eagle is selling for a nice discount. The price is $11.50, which represents a PE ratio of 10.65. I purchased shares in 2011 for a trade on 9/14/2011. The price was $11.01 and the PE ratio was 13.11. The PE is better now. They… More

ElleRB (86.48)
Submitted February 07, 2010

I have noticed their pricing creeping up while their quality declines. I don't like the feel of that. Sad thing is that I love American Eagle...but I simply don't shop there now. Make your prices commensurate with the quality, and I'll return.

AEO VS S&P 500 (SPY)

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Recent Community Commentary

Read the most recent pitches from players about AEO.

Recs

2
Member Avatar TMF1000 (99.77) Submitted: 5/30/2017 9:16:32 AM : Outperform Start Price: $11.26 AEO Score: +9.79

I believe that Amercan Eagle is selling for a nice discount. The price is $11.50, which represents a PE ratio of 10.65. I purchased shares in 2011 for a trade on 9/14/2011. The price was $11.01 and the PE ratio was 13.11. The PE is better now. They were paying $0.44 per year in dividends in 2011: today, they are paying $0.50 per share, which represents a dividend yield of 4.34%. Even that is better than the 4% dividend yield in 2011. I got a bit lazy on my sale, but just 2 quarters later one could have sold shares at $21.13 or a 92% return in a few quarters. A person more alert than I could have gotten a quick nice return. This looks like a repeat chance to get another nice return.

Are the risks higher?

Yes, ARO will likely continue to liquidate inventory, which could hurt sales for a while. And they face the same risk as all apparel retailers - competition and changing fashion whims. But there are plenty of good things too.

TTM cash flow today is $169.206 million or $0.93 per share. Back in the second quarter of 2011, they were making $184.8 million or $0.94 per share, a bit better. Today, they have reduced the share count, but they have less cash today too. Today, they have $225.197 million in cash and no debt, back in 2011; they had $515 million in cash and no debt. Those two things have not improved, but they are still debt free and they still generate strong streams of cash flow.

Last year, in 2016, they were running hot. They nearly lost a competitor in ARO. ARO liquidated many of their stores, but was bailed out by a private company and some of those stores will continue to operate. Those that closed liquidated inventory and where they did this in areas where there were American Eagle stores, these discounted prices hurt AEO. But that won’t last forever. I expect by the holidays, the stock price will be higher. And while investors wait they will be getting a 4.34% dividend yield. Cash flow yield currently is 8.1%, which is really very nice.

Aerie comparable store sales were up 17% in the fourth quarter and reported 25% comparable store sales for the first quarter of 2017. What? Aerie has 102 stores up from 97 stores. The success of the Aerie brand, though coming from a much smaller base of sales, alone would be enough for me to ride out the liquidations that are affecting their main American Eagle brand. Aerie sales are about 11% of total sales in 2016, so about $397 million a year and growing fast. AEO believes they will become a $1 billion brand.

Although Aerie is known more for bras and undies, their Chill Play products, which include leggings and other sports wear, seems to be getting some great press. Aerie is more body positive than lululemon, which blamed larger women for fabric failures of their yoga pants. Aerie caters to larger women’s needs. That alone makes them interesting to me and is probably one of the reasons Aerie is doing so well.

There are 943 AEO stores down from 949. Leases for a large percentage of their stores are coming up over the next three years, which will give them additional flexibility to close underperforming stores, without penalties. Even a 91% return over three years, which also includes the 4.34% annual dividend, would be just fine with me. So you have to ask, do you feel they can get back up to $21 in less than 3 years? It worked last time in just two quarters.

This is a good price in my opinion.

Recs

0
Member Avatar LAPhil (93.64) Submitted: 3/2/2017 9:34:34 AM : Underperform Start Price: $14.19 AEO Score: +15.02

traditional mall retailers are on their way out

Recs

0
Member Avatar PONYUP66 (< 20) Submitted: 2/20/2017 7:27:19 PM : Underperform Start Price: $14.96 AEO Score: +21.38

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Leaderboard

Find the members with the highest scoring picks in AEO.

Score Leader

TrackJimCramer

TrackJimCramer (84.88) Score: +189.81

The Score Leader is the player with the highest score across all their picks in AEO.

Top
Pick
Member Name Member
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
Score Commentary
pinhead56 74.58 3/5/2009 1/17/2011 Underperform 3W $6.64 +95.53% +270.16% +174.64 0 Comment
SmoothBlend < 20 3/3/2009 Underperform 1Y $6.49 +100.29% +268.10% +167.82 0 Comment
SheepInvstr213 < 20 3/6/2009 Underperform 5Y $5.97 +117.51% +283.90% +166.40 0 Comment
hackerbobZ < 20 3/23/2009 Underperform 3W $7.72 +68.29% +227.04% +158.75 0 Comment
zakncusaf 51.65 3/23/2009 Underperform NS $7.91 +64.21% +222.13% +157.92 0 Comment
alley11 < 20 5/11/2009 Underperform 3M $10.46 +24.23% +180.81% +156.58 1 Comment
thelok617 74.53 3/13/2009 Underperform 3M $6.92 +87.60% +241.47% +153.88 0 Comment
salvadorveiga 26.44 5/21/2009 Underperform 3M $9.55 +36.00% +187.84% +151.84 0 Comment
madredneck1 < 20 5/27/2009 Underperform NS $9.59 +35.41% +181.66% +146.25 0 Comment
crunchyoyster 95.51 6/17/2009 Underperform 5Y $9.58 +35.53% +181.02% +145.49 0 Comment

Wall Street

See what the Wall Street professionals think, according to their public statements and filings.

Player Name Player
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
S&P
Gain
Score End Date Commentary
TrackWunderlich < 20 8/11/2016 Outperform NS $18.00 -27.83% +16.76% -44.59 0 Comment
TrackTelseyAdvis 26.68 2/24/2015 Outperform NS $13.74 -5.46% +20.71% -26.17 0 Comment
TrackOppenheimer 67.72 12/9/2014 Outperform NS $11.22 +15.78% +24.70% -8.92 0 Comment
trackstephensinc 61.66 9/17/2014 Outperform NS $12.63 +2.84% +26.94% -24.10 0 Comment
TrackJanney 83.04 8/21/2014 Outperform NS $11.81 +10.03% +28.01% -17.97 0 Comment
TrackCitigroup 93.21 5/22/2014 Underperform NS $9.20 +41.19% +34.71% -6.48 0 Comment
TrackCowenandCo 87.78 4/7/2014 Underperform NS $10.83 +19.90% +37.09% +17.19 0 Comment
TrackBRileyandCo 82.85 12/9/2013 Outperform NS $14.30 -13.00% +12.28% -25.28 11/10/2014 @ $12.44 0 Comment
TrackJanney 83.04 12/2/2013 Outperform NS $16.28 -29.35% +1.99% -31.35 4/8/2014 @ $11.50 0 Comment
TrackBreanMurray 74.16 11/7/2013 Outperform NS $14.01 -7.29% +43.58% -50.87 0 Comment
TrackStandpoint 39.21 5/15/2013 Outperform 5Y $19.29 -28.21% +21.07% -49.28 8/28/2014 @ $13.85 0 Comment
TrackPiperJaff 86.96 4/10/2013 Outperform NS $16.55 -21.49% +62.15% -83.64 0 Comment
TrackSterneAgee 86.31 9/10/2012 Outperform NS $18.00 -27.82% +76.75% -104.57 0 Comment
TrackZacks < 20 5/23/2012 Outperform 3M $18.53 +7.31% +4.45% +2.86 11/9/2012 @ $19.89 1 Comment
TrackWedbush 86.89 5/1/2012 Outperform NS $14.23 -8.72% +82.31% -91.03 0 Comment
TrackJanney 83.04 1/4/2012 Outperform NS $14.22 +18.44% +33.31% -14.87 8/6/2013 @ $16.84 0 Comment
TrackZacks < 20 11/9/2011 Outperform 3M $14.01 +2.18% +3.59% -1.41 2/2/2012 @ $14.32 1 Comment
TrackUltraLong < 20 11/3/2011 Outperform NS $10.69 +21.56% +103.44% -81.88 1 Comment
TrackZacks < 20 8/25/2011 Underperform 3M $10.07 +12.46% -5.46% -17.92 10/3/2011 @ $11.32 1 Comment
TrackZacks < 20 2/7/2011 Underperform 3M $14.83 +5.66% -1.54% -7.20 3/10/2011 @ $15.67 1 Comment
TrackStandpoint 39.21 12/22/2010 Outperform NS $13.97 +6.41% -0.07% +6.48 12/23/2011 @ $14.87 0 Comment
TrackGoldmanSach 75.93 12/9/2010 Outperform 5Y $12.82 -0.78% +57.64% -58.42 10/24/2014 @ $12.72 1 Comment
TrackJanney 83.04 11/29/2010 Outperform NS $16.39 -11.80% +14.01% -25.80 5/10/2011 @ $14.46 0 Comment
TrackOppenheimer 67.72 10/8/2010 Outperform NS $13.92 +31.57% +38.51% -6.94 6/20/2013 @ $18.32 0 Comment
TrackCharlesPayn < 20 8/20/2010 Outperform 3M $9.31 +39.47% +137.00% -97.53 0 Comment
TrackBreanMurray 74.16 6/29/2010 Underperform NS $11.12 +15.73% +22.91% +7.17 6/6/2011 @ $12.87 0 Comment
TrackNeedham 91.46 10/8/2009 Outperform NS $16.73 -5.78% +24.11% -29.89 3/31/2011 @ $15.76 0 Comment
TrackSnow 78.75 8/21/2009 Outperform 1Y $13.21 +8.18% +11.04% -2.86 9/30/2010 @ $14.29 1 Comment
TrackLongbow 95.69 6/11/2009 Outperform NS $10.10 +28.56% +170.61% -142.05 0 Comment
TrackEinhorn 98.69 6/8/2009 Outperform 1Y $14.59 -2.67% +10.28% -12.95 8/25/2009 @ $14.20 1 Comment
TrackBMOCapital < 20 5/28/2009 Outperform NS $12.21 +51.46% +50.46% +1.00 11/16/2012 @ $18.49 0 Comment
TrackStifel 94.73 5/28/2009 Outperform NS $10.27 +26.49% +184.67% -158.18 0 Comment
TrackMKMPartners 84.23 5/14/2009 Outperform NS $13.85 -7.52% +22.99% -30.51 5/27/2010 @ $12.81 0 Comment
TrackBarclaysCap 91.74 5/12/2009 Outperform NS $10.62 +22.37% +181.03% -158.66 0 Comment
TrackCitigroup 93.21 5/11/2009 Outperform NS $12.30 +55.31% +80.37% -25.06 6/19/2013 @ $19.10 0 Comment
TrackPiperJaff 86.96 5/6/2009 Outperform NS $13.28 +66.30% +57.31% +8.99 10/11/2012 @ $22.09 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 84.88 5/5/2009 Underperform 3W $10.70 +21.35% +184.34% +162.99 0 Comment
TrackBreanMurray 74.16 4/6/2009 Underperform NS $12.66 +36.12% +36.37% +0.25 1/7/2010 @ $17.23 0 Comment
TrackOppenheimer 67.72 10/23/2008 Outperform NS $9.82 +27.44% +19.84% +7.60 6/24/2010 @ $12.51 0 Comment
TrackBRileyandCo 82.85 10/22/2008 Outperform NS $10.29 +17.09% -10.76% +27.85 4/8/2009 @ $12.05 0 Comment
TrackFBRCapitalM 90.06 10/9/2008 Outperform NS $8.13 +59.76% +162.47% -102.71 0 Comment
TrackJefferies 83.60 9/19/2008 Outperform NS $15.55 +7.97% -11.25% +19.23 1/4/2010 @ $16.79 0 Comment
trackrbcdainraus < 20 8/8/2008 Outperform NS $8.95 +45.21% +104.75% -59.54 0 Comment
TrackDeutscheSec 88.21 6/27/2008 Outperform NS $9.65 +34.55% +104.79% -70.24 0 Comment
TrackRichAster 99.32 6/17/2008 Outperform 1Y $11.14 +16.63% +93.02% -76.39 1 Comment
TrackFBRCapitalM 90.06 5/19/2008 Underperform NS $17.93 -24.09% -10.45% +13.65 6/27/2008 @ $13.61 0 Comment
TrackNeedham 91.46 3/7/2008 Underperform NS $16.95 -23.90% -5.63% +18.27 7/16/2008 @ $12.90 0 Comment
TrackPaliResearc 36.46 2/22/2008 Outperform NS $14.36 -9.55% +99.10% -108.65 0 Comment
TrackBearStearns < 20 12/17/2007 Outperform NS $17.67 -2.34% -5.82% +3.49 4/17/2012 @ $17.26 0 Comment
TrackMichaelBrus 78.35 12/13/2007 Outperform 1Y $13.93 -6.74% +80.09% -86.83 0 Comment
TrackWellsFargo 90.15 9/26/2007 Outperform NS $17.06 -23.88% +75.37% -99.25 0 Comment
TrackCowenandCo 87.78 9/4/2007 Outperform NS $19.44 -38.68% +25.73% -64.41 4/7/2014 @ $11.92 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 84.88 8/27/2007 Outperform 3W $24.04 -35.53% -38.37% +2.84 5/6/2009 @ $15.50 0 Comment
TrackRBCCapMkts 90.22 5/21/2007 Outperform NS $19.35 -32.88% +76.58% -109.46 0 Comment
TrackNCPI < 20 5/15/2007 Outperform NS $28.16 -19.95% -2.00% -17.94 12/3/2007 @ $22.54 0 Comment
TrackSunTrustRH 87.45 5/11/2007 Outperform NS $19.25 -32.52% +79.92% -112.43 0 Comment
TrackMatrix < 20 5/2/2007 Outperform NS $24.91 -30.71% -7.27% -23.43 4/17/2012 @ $17.26 0 Comment
TrackJanney 83.04 4/26/2007 Outperform NS $29.45 -51.54% -15.85% -35.69 7/28/2008 @ $14.27 0 Comment
TrackSusquehanna 91.45 3/14/2007 Outperform NS $19.97 -34.94% +95.41% -130.35 0 Comment
TrackRobertWalbe 58.60 3/8/2007 Outperform 1Y $19.36 -32.90% +92.96% -125.87 0 Comment
TrackDADavidson 94.65 3/8/2007 Outperform NS $29.75 -39.43% -6.22% -33.21 3/12/2008 @ $18.02 0 Comment
TrackCarisandCo 91.03 3/8/2007 Outperform NS $19.81 -34.43% +91.92% -126.35 0 Comment
TrackLazardCapit 80.95 3/8/2007 Outperform NS $18.97 -31.51% +92.33% -123.84 0 Comment
TrackAGEdwards < 20 2/15/2007 Outperform NS $32.17 -12.03% +4.99% -17.02 5/22/2007 @ $28.30 0 Comment
TrackTWeisel 85.76 2/1/2007 Underperform NS $21.28 -38.95% +87.66% +126.60 0 Comment
TrackJimJubak < 20 10/10/2006 Outperform 1Y $29.82 +9.99% +4.20% +5.79 1/9/2007 @ $32.80 0 Comment
TrackCitigroup 93.21 10/6/2006 Underperform NS $29.07 -20.65% +11.93% +32.58 11/6/2007 @ $23.07 0 Comment
TrackUBS 93.51 8/31/2006 Outperform NS $25.60 +18.15% +4.71% +13.44 10/18/2006 @ $30.25 0 Comment
TrackKevinDann < 20 8/31/2006 Outperform NS $21.54 -19.87% +5.51% -25.38 4/17/2012 @ $17.26 0 Comment
TrackAGEdwards < 20 8/25/2006 Outperform NS $23.89 +29.47% +5.70% +23.77 10/16/2006 @ $30.93 0 Comment
TrackFBRCapitalM 90.06 8/9/2006 Outperform NS $22.73 +33.20% +6.26% +26.94 10/5/2006 @ $30.28 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 84.88 8/7/2006 Underperform 3W $22.47 +12.15% +15.21% +3.06 8/28/2007 @ $25.20 0 Comment
TrackJGreenblatt 67.33 4/13/2006 Outperform 1Y $19.89 +63.58% +10.05% +53.53 1/1/2007 @ $32.53 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 84.88 3/23/2006 Outperform 3W $19.01 +18.93% -1.99% +20.92 8/7/2006 @ $22.61 0 Comment

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