Aeterna Zentaris Inc (NASDAQ:AEZS)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

A growing global biopharmaceutical company focused on endrocrine therapy and oncology, in drug discovery, development and commercialization.

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Member Avatar Rilac (98.26) Submitted: 10/31/2014 2:49:21 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.27 AEZS Score: -71.30

Aeterna Zentaris has a very promising pipeline including macimorelin acetate and zoptarelin doxorubicin. Macrilen essentially has a 30m market within the US for AGHD evaluation. Potentially, Macrilen could be expanded for the evaluations of pediatric GHD and TBI's in the US, Europe and Canada. If so, Macrilen presents an annual market of $400m. Also, Zoptarelin, if approved, has an annual market of $750m-1b throughout the US, CAN, EU.

Market penetration for Macrilen does not present a problem as Macrilen is superior to its competitors in terms of ease of use, efficiency and safety. Furthermore, AGHD is a very niche market and it has little to none complications in marketing to this market. In fact, it is projected that Macrilen will penetrate 45-50% of its market by 2018 on the basis that its competitors are inferior(GHRH, glucagon, ITT, arginine, clondine) and its small market(6,000 AGHD cases annually). Nonetheless, if Aeterna relies on the sales of Macrilen alone, it will reach profitability by 2018. This is based on projected sales of Macrilen, average gross profit of various orphan drug pharm( VRTX, NPSP, CELG, ALXN, SHPG, BMRN), successful expansion to EU&CAN and its projected future expenses(R&D, SG&A).

The upcoming pdufa date, November 5 for macrilen will inevitably result in an approval. Clinical data has proven that macrilen is safe, efficient and superior to its competitors. In fact, it is displayed that macrilen has an 87% accuracy in evaluating those with AGHD, which is well higher than most of its peers. Macrilen's safety is very well tolerated as it has shown no serious emergent events except for one case which showed abnormal t waves on ECG reading including QT prolongation. This presents little to no problem to the safety standard of Macrilen as these abnormalities occur within many common drugs. Furthermore, Macrilen is safe and exhibits safety standards higher than its peers.

The problems presented by Aeterna, is that they are continuously diluting their shares with secondary offerings and ATM sales. An approx 14M share ATM was announced over half a yr ago. By Aug, they have sold approx 1.5M shares. Since then, I expect that they have sold alot more. It is expected that they have enough cash at hand to last them throughout 2015. If the sales of Estrogel and Macrilen does not pick up, a secondary offering can be expected as early as the 2nd quarter of 2015.

Nonetheless, in the short term AEZS will be hit with dilution but in the long run AEZS will come up on top.

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Member Avatar MMCapitalMgmt (99.82) Submitted: 10/27/2014 3:39:05 PM : Underperform Start Price: $1.24 AEZS Score: +63.11

LOL @ these stock spamming morons

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Member Avatar TerryFool (43.30) Submitted: 4/21/2014 8:05:51 AM : Outperform Start Price: $0.95 AEZS Score: -54.23

SPEC BUY@ 1.00 TP 1.7 CAPS 5

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Member Avatar Jibo999 (< 20) Submitted: 1/20/2014 3:02:49 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.35 AEZS Score: -73.16

Super rich pipeline

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Member Avatar SqwiiTrader (< 20) Submitted: 11/15/2013 2:53:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.66 AEZS Score: -83.60

mako

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Member Avatar TerryHoodSr (59.57) Submitted: 7/29/2013 10:57:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.39 AEZS Score: -84.68

growth

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 3/25/2013 6:44:02 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.87 AEZS Score: -105.88

Somehow I missed the gap down with the failure of the phase III trial of perifosine in myeloma which I had been predicting for months. I'll try and make up for it by greenthumbing the stock at a despondent low. Now that perifosine is out of the picture, Aeterna has an enterprise value of only 5M despite having cytotoxic LHRH analogue AEZS-108 in advanced clinical trials for endometrial, breast, and prostate cancers. Ozarelix and AEZS-130 have less potential but still add depth to the pipeline. Given Aeterna's history of temporarily resuscitating itself, I think it might be reasonable to grab an initial tranche of shares if the price remains stable under 2.

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Member Avatar SamsaricSufferer (< 20) Submitted: 11/5/2012 10:28:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.25 AEZS Score: -122.38

Upcoming Clinical trial catalysts.

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Member Avatar stainsolution (42.33) Submitted: 4/4/2012 7:12:44 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.53 AEZS Score: -137.27

Bottom play. Betting on the future pipeline

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Member Avatar leelu99 (20.90) Submitted: 4/4/2012 4:51:43 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.53 AEZS Score: -137.27

Stock history around 1.5+ split at .75.... buy!

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Member Avatar TheGreek1966 (< 20) Submitted: 4/3/2012 2:20:25 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.38 AEZS Score: -134.50

This is a company I have been monitoring for some time. The management team is great and will correct the value lost in no time.

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Member Avatar ValueOfTime (96.11) Submitted: 4/2/2012 11:16:16 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.38 AEZS Score: -134.50

People buy hype. Stock price is low and the only direction hype can go is up for this stock.

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Member Avatar Dent001 (37.03) Submitted: 4/2/2012 12:35:05 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.57 AEZS Score: -134.64

why not

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Member Avatar RBuskey106 (47.04) Submitted: 3/14/2012 10:27:15 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.20 AEZS Score: -142.99

Long term....interesting pipeline

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Member Avatar K3VIN0 (< 20) Submitted: 1/8/2012 4:56:09 AM : Outperform Start Price: $9.96 AEZS Score: -156.90

Perifosine is looking good. Pipeline shows potential.

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Member Avatar vaderblue (< 20) Submitted: 11/14/2011 7:29:20 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.02 AEZS Score: -160.60

I am convienced AEZS is on the right track but only time will tell. I am betting on AEZS to succeed. After all the shares are cheap and owning some shares may be a good thing in the long run.

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Member Avatar rossklaw (< 20) Submitted: 10/3/2011 11:52:10 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.46 AEZS Score: -185.37

Pipeline gamble

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Member Avatar DBurner (52.24) Submitted: 9/12/2011 12:12:19 AM : Outperform Start Price: $11.28 AEZS Score: -176.69

Deep pipeline and high hopes for perifosene.

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Member Avatar Stef100000 (< 20) Submitted: 9/10/2011 9:32:26 PM : Outperform Start Price: $11.28 AEZS Score: -176.69

Test for perifosine is coming out next year big market

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Member Avatar TMFUltraLong (99.95) Submitted: 8/9/2011 12:06:53 AM : Outperform Start Price: $9.60 AEZS Score: -176.51

It's a biotech - it will either earn or burn. Based on the research I've done on Aeterna Zentaris and its partnership with Keryx, all signs are pointing that their phase 3 trial will bring a favorable result from the FDA. Aeterna Zentaris has 11 molecules in its pipeline of which 6 are currently in clinical trials. There's plenty of cash here as well, so minimal dilution to shareholders. Fell off a cliff with the rest of the market and down more than 40% in a month. Time to jump aboard on a hopeful dip tomorrow morning.

TMFUltraLong

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