$17.54

0.65 (3.85%)

11/21/2008 4:00 PM

American Capital Agency (AGNC)

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What the Community Thinks

Total Members

54 Outperforms

11 Underperforms

All-Stars

9 Outperforms

4 Underperforms

Wall Street

2 Outperforms

0 Underperforms

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Ticker Tags

Micro Cap (5043), Railroads (3), IPO in 2008 (40), Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) (169)
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American Capital Agency At A Glance

Current Price:	$17.54
Last Trade Time:	11/21/2008 4:00 PM
Open:	$17.33
Previous Close:	$16.89
Daily Range:	$16.51 - $17.70
52-Week Range:	$12.00 - $20.25
Volume:	238,208
Market Cap:	$253.43M
P/E Ratio:	0.00
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AGNC VS S&P 500 (SPY)

News & Discussion Boards

Top Bull Pitch

Recs

3 American Capital Agency (AGNC)

Avatar JadedConsumer (< 20) Submitted: 9/29/08 4:12 PM

AGNC is full of assets bought AFTER the subprime collapse, priced by parties that felt both the fear and the need for liquidity. I expect an opportunity for capital appreciation, since the default rate implied by home mortgage instruments exceeds the actual (single-digit) default rate.

A...More

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Top Bear Pitch

Recs

1 American Capital Agency (AGNC)

Avatar NUKEWHALES (< 20) Submitted: 9/30/08 2:27 PM

Respectfully disagree about AGNC's wonderful prospects. IMHO, it is skating on the thin ice of borrowing short and lending long in a very turbulent credit market. The same 8X leverage that is giving a current dividend return in excess of 20% can turn in a heartbeat into a massive hemmorhage of money...More

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Recs 2 (AGNC) dhd1491 (98.91) Submitted: 10/31/08 10:58 AM : Start Price: $16.82 AGNC Score: 25.35 After 3rd Q earnings release, I'm a bigger fan than ever of AGNC. They are employing less leverage, at only 5.4x assets, yet earning more by using options strategy. Because volatility is so great right now, that works. As volatility and spreads reduce, AGNC will have to employ more leverage to generate like returns, but, for now, they're making hay. With a portfolio whose P&I is government-backed, AGNC's portfolio presents almost no default risk. With 100% fixed-rate securities, they do incur the risk of interest rates rising, but with the spread between their cost of borrowing and what their securities are throwing off at a difference of over 3%, there would have to be a massive move up in interest rates before AGNC would be in trouble. Does anyone think that will happen given current economic conditions and falling commodity prices? Not bloody likely. With a dividend of over 20% that they can easily cover for the foreseeable future, AGNC seemed like a no-brainer to me at under $17. I'd probably pay up to $20 and be reasonably sure it would beat the market in the next year or two. I was a fan of ACAS before the credit-crunch, but am now an even bigger one. I think they have made some very savvy moves. Quickly creating AGNC was one of the best, imo, taking advantage of an historic opportunity. Report this Post Replies: 0 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out. Recs 0 (AGNC) GBIGD (< 20) Submitted: 10/30/08 9:48 AM : Start Price: $17.65 AGNC Score: -20.09 MY MODEL TELLS ME TO MAKE THIS PICK Report this Post Replies: 0 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out. Recs 0 (AGNC) maxhoffa (86.46) Submitted: 10/29/08 4:35 AM : Start Price: $17.00 AGNC Score: 21.92 Tired to rate this stock yesterday, but Fool wouldn't log me on for some reason . . . cost me a 7.5% gain and a CAPS boost. Oh well, I still like this stock and am green lighting it today. Took a new 200 share position in the real world yesterday morning. AGNC has outperformed the market during the worst of days, shedding only a few percentage points over the last week. I think that's what you can expect out of this stock, relatively low downside volatility. And on the upside, I think it should join any market gains. AGNC's portfolio is now one of the safest, fully Fed insured. Its dividend, a full dollar per share. The economy could (and will) continue to decline, but AGNC's holdings won't be effected. AGNC is releasing its 3rdQ report today at the close of market (29 Oct.). I expect that report to be largely positive, and for share price on the 30th to react accordingly. If we find anything close to market stability, I expect AGNC shares to reach $25 within a few months, and approach $50 within a year. Buy it, hold it, DRiP it. But if the market falls off the table again, it'll take everything with it, AGNC included. So like with any new holding, set your stops fairly close. Given AGNC's recently demonstrated stability, I'd suggest 4-5% might work. Report this Post Replies: 0 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out. Recs 0 (AGNC) Triplicate (< 20) Submitted: 10/19/08 3:03 AM : Start Price: $16.83 AGNC Score: -24.76 The difficult credit markets will weigh heavily on AGNC despite its pristine portfolio. Report this Post Replies: 0 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out. Recs 1 (AGNC) NUKEWHALES (< 20) Submitted: 9/30/08 2:27 PM : Start Price: $16.77 AGNC Score: -39.00 Respectfully disagree about AGNC's wonderful prospects. IMHO, it is skating on the thin ice of borrowing short and lending long in a very turbulent credit market. The same 8X leverage that is giving a current dividend return in excess of 20% can turn in a heartbeat into a massive hemmorhage of money if ACAS loses its ability to borrow at 2%-plus to finance a portfolio yielding 5%+. Overnight borrowing rate for London banks hit an astounding 6%+ last night. Are you bulls suggesting that ACAS can borrow on better terms than Barclay's? Sure, that astonomical LIBOR spread may be a short term phenom--but then again, it may not. Just because the underlying asssets are bullet-proof with respect to defaults does not mean they are risk-free. There is always an interest rate risk when you're running an unmatched book, and this book is unmatched on purpose. It is predicated on the assumption that short term rates will not rise for many years (the term of the govt-backed mortages), and that is a highly speculative proposition. Given the spectacular horror of a global credit lock if Congress can't come up with an acceptable work-out procedure for ailing banks, AGNC puts might be a better bet than AGNC itself. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but the credit markets are in far worse shape than the stock market (don't ask me why), but convergence of the small (equity market) toward the large (credit market) is a far more likely outcome than the reverse. And AGNC is essentially a credit market company. Report this Post Replies: 1 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out.
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Top Pick	Member Name	Member Rating	Start Date	Call	Time Frame	Start Price	Stock Gain	S&P Gain	Score	Pitch
	TrackJMP	< 20	06/30/08		NS	$16.12	+8.84%	-40.70%	+49.54
	TrackRBCCapMkts	33.03	06/24/08		NS	$16.54	+6.02%	-42.13%	+48.15

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