Agrium Inc Com (NYSE:AGU)
The Company is a retailer of agricultural products and services in the United States and Argentina and a global producer and wholesale marketer of nutrients for agricultural and industrial markets.
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Recs
Googlespooch
(25.49)
Submitted: 4/23/2013 4:53:38 AM :
Start Price:
$91.50
AGU Score:
-6.54
Agrium has been able to do well as a diversified agriculture company. They have a strong presence in the nitrogen business (very profitable). They also have been able to keep up good margins in their seed business. They have also been able to grow alternative forms of income rapidly over the last few years albeit at the loss of some gross margin with regards to that division of their revenues. Besides all of that, Agrium is in a business that is essential to life as we know it: providing the inputs to produce food for millions of Americans. If all of that was not enough, they have a good dividend ratio and a tendency to grow that dividend consistently.
Recs
GGGilmore
(70.63)
Submitted: 2/14/2013 4:58:11 PM :
Start Price:
$109.22
AGU Score:
-25.89
After last year's drought I expect higher corn planting. With the current Federal Farm Insurnace a farmer can actually make more income if the crops fail. The farmer's can't go wrong planting lots of corn. Also, any company that is making fertilizer with cheap natural gas in the U.S. can't help but make money unless they have really stupid or greedy management. I do not think this company has eaither.
Recs
BrentonKJ
(20.72)
Submitted: 11/5/2012 4:03:00 PM :
Start Price:
$98.22
AGU Score:
-25.31
Somewhat diversified with the retail business. Getting close to putting in real money.
Recs
katiekeates
(< 20)
Submitted: 10/24/2012 1:53:50 AM :
Start Price:
$105.90
AGU Score:
-32.22
Food pricing are high, weather has been getting more variable, fertilizer will be needed to push yields..they are undervalued by 30 -40% currently. Are a smaller size and are profitable.
Recs
nonzerosum
(89.56)
Submitted: 10/16/2012 10:30:18 AM :
Start Price:
$103.02
AGU Score:
-26.27
well priced, growing like mad, and fertilizers should do well as arable land continues to decline.
Recs
bIlluminati
(31.17)
Submitted: 10/1/2012 3:15:07 PM :
Start Price:
$104.70
AGU Score:
-28.57
Good earnings and momentum.
Recs
harrymiller7
(< 20)
Submitted: 9/2/2012 4:52:38 PM :
Start Price:
$97.56
AGU Score:
-24.74
this is the best play on food
Recs
phatchips767
(< 20)
Submitted: 8/28/2012 2:08:38 PM :
Start Price:
$95.62
AGU Score:
-22.45
albertan company in ag products business in n&s american markets.
Recs
line70day
(24.50)
Submitted: 8/20/2012 1:33:57 PM :
Start Price:
$99.91
AGU Score:
-26.20
trailing 12 Month rev.$16.8B return on equity past 3 yr 18.7% cash /debt $2.0B /2..5 B
Div 1%
Recs
TMFDeej
(99.47)
Submitted: 8/14/2012 12:23:43 PM :
Start Price:
$95.78
AGU Score:
-22.91
After successful activist adventures in Marathon Petroleum and McGraw-Hill the busy Jana Partners is at it again, this time agitating for change at fertilizer producer and retailer Agrium (AGU).
Jana has been encouraging Agrium to spin-off its business that supplies fertilizer and seeds to farmers in North America under the assumption that the market is undervaluing the operations and that they might be a buyout candidate if they were an independent company. Jana is also after AGU to cut expenses and increase share buybacks.
I like thepotential moves and while Agrium seems to be resisting for now Jana has been very successful in the past.
Deej
Recs
jasnshell
(< 20)
Submitted: 3/11/2012 3:16:15 PM :
Start Price:
$82.24
AGU Score:
-10.30
Currently undervalued
Recs
Speed03
(< 20)
Submitted: 12/30/2011 10:14:33 AM :
Start Price:
$66.51
AGU Score:
+4.89
oversold fertilizer stock
Recs
hogdoc
(< 20)
Submitted: 11/4/2011 1:15:27 PM :
Start Price:
$77.35
AGU Score:
-15.23
I'd expect this stock to channel below $85.55 until June or July of 2012 where it will begin to breakout.
Recs
wwmcn
(67.97)
Submitted: 10/12/2011 10:02:29 PM :
Start Price:
$72.13
AGU Score:
-12.44
I like that AGU's business includes retail and services to farmers vs others who are primarily in mining/processing and distribution. This makes AGU in some respects a more diverse company.
Recs
14570fool
(< 20)
Submitted: 10/11/2011 2:14:30 PM :
Start Price:
$72.22
AGU Score:
-13.25
single digit forward P/E.
Fertilizer (early food production chain) demand has to rise all over the world.
Recs
leohaas
(91.57)
Submitted: 9/7/2011 10:45:47 AM :
Start Price:
$85.88
AGU Score:
-34.21
Just gaming the system: harvested a +7 score, while lowering my cost basis a few dimes.
Recs
ardyes703
(48.03)
Submitted: 4/27/2011 2:36:22 PM :
Start Price:
$88.97
AGU Score:
-20.89
same reason i chose MOO... corn will prevail.
Recs
thunderhawke23
(< 20)
Submitted: 4/5/2011 8:59:20 AM :
Start Price:
$94.14
AGU Score:
-28.50
Industry is exploding now
Recs
cibient
(< 20)
Submitted: 3/22/2011 12:44:17 PM :
Start Price:
$85.84
AGU Score:
-22.52
I had owned AGU and CF before in MRLP. Sold both with trailing stop orders but am looking to get exposure back into fertilizer stocks. According to Yahoo! Finance, AGU has the best PEG ratio at 0.62 and Price/Sales ratio at 1.33.
Stats from MagicDiligence.com:
Results for ticker 'AGU' (Agrium Inc.):
Earnings Yield: 6.7%
MFI Return on Capital: 20.4%
MagicDiligence Research for 'AGU':
Research Available for AGU! (full membership required - upgrade here)
Instant Diligence:
The Earnings Yield of 6.7% is Average.
The MFI Return on Capital of 20.4% is Average.
Near-term Financial Health appears to be Very Good. The current ratio is 1.63.
Calculations:
(for quarter ended 2010-12-31)
Market Cap = Stock_Price * Shares
= 87.58 * 158.00
= 13837.64
Excess Cash = Cash - MAX(0; (Current Liabilities - Current Assets + Cash))
= 543.00 - MAX(0; (4285.00 - 6994.00 + 543.00))
= 543.00
Enterprise Value = Market Cap + Total Debt - Excess Cash
= 13837.64 + 2540.00 - 543.00
= 15834.64
MFI Invested Capital = Total Assets - Goodwill - Intangibles - Current Liabilities + Short Term Debt - Excess Cash
= 12717.00 - 2463.00 - 619.00 - 4285.00 + 422.00 - 543.00
= 5229.00
Earnings Yield = Operating Earnings / Enterprise Value
= 1066.00 / 15834.64
= 0.067 (6.7%)
MFI Return on Capital = Operating Earnings / MFI Invested Capital
= 1066.00 / 5229.00
= 0.204 (20.4%)
Recs
CarolinaMatt
(35.84)
Submitted: 1/13/2011 12:50:39 PM :
Start Price:
$92.62
AGU Score:
-31.23
This is a simple macro play with some basic business understanding layered in.
The world demand for food is set to grow rapidly. As HUGE population areas in Asia (read China) continue their shift from a 200 years behind the time technology-wise agrarian society into a modern powerhouse, the previously poor are gradually adding disposable income. First thing bought after climbing out of near poverty is shelter and food. Result is that a huge portion of the world population suddenly becomes a market for food. But here's the thing - many of the best places to grow food are already running near capacity. There will be increased production in North America as prices for food commodities rise, but there will also be a next wave of food production to less ideal growing areas (many within the countries that need the food). The result is the need for better seeds and more stuff (fertilizer, potash, etc.) to improve the growability of lesser farmland. Because of this, I like the macro environment for all things food growing.
But why AGU specifically?
A couple reasons:
1) Despite a huge runup (about 100%) AGU is priced reasonably at about 13X 2011 earnings.
2) Their cost structure - A large portion of their revenue is from nitrogen fertilizer. A key input into making fertilizer is natural gas. Right now, natural gas prices in North America are running about half what they are in other places in the world. This gives AGU a HUGE cost advantage over European and other overseas competitors, and with the volume of shale gas the US is sitting on this is unlikely to change. It is important to understand that while oil is a worldwide market due to its easy portability, natural gas is still very much a regional market. While portable in liquid form, costs and limits to this make natural gas still very much a "where you find is where you have to sell it/use" market.
Note that I think you could also play the same macro story with the big potash suppliers (MOS, POT) or the farm equipment companies (CAT, DE).
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