Agrium Inc Com (NYSE:AGU)

CAPS Rating: 5 out of 5

The Company is a retailer of agricultural products and services in the United States and Argentina and a global producer and wholesale marketer of nutrients for agricultural and industrial markets.

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Member Avatar saunafool (98.73) Submitted: 3/25/2014 12:05:34 PM : Outperform Start Price: $93.07 AGU Score: -10.88

Potash prices seem to have bottomed. Any price increases in the future will lead to outsized gains for Agrium.

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Member Avatar rocker20 (21.95) Submitted: 2/15/2014 11:02:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $86.57 AGU Score: -4.58

Chosen based on list of Price/Div/5 year dividend growth

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Member Avatar coach2020 (< 20) Submitted: 1/7/2014 10:06:17 AM : Outperform Start Price: $87.42 AGU Score: -5.96

1) Hammered by potash price drop but potash is only part of story
2) Relatively insulated from China/Russia
3) Megatrend---Feed the emerging middle class

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Member Avatar PhiTrading (35.61) Submitted: 1/3/2014 12:28:41 AM : Outperform Start Price: $89.62 AGU Score: -8.67

Long Term Hold:
Very safe pick in a market that is hard to pick right now.
div yield: 3.3%
p/e: 10.35
5yr eps growth: 12%
5yr div growth: 78%
5yr rev. growth: 13.5%

All these are great numbers.
Nice safe pick long term, to add to a dividend rich portfolio, or to add a dividend stock to your portfolio

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Member Avatar 10x2 (25.02) Submitted: 12/13/2013 12:29:18 AM : Outperform Start Price: $85.79 AGU Score: -7.08

Canadian diversified crop chems. potash, N2, seeds, etc.

earnings growth over the last 10 years was about 30%, 2 yr EPS growth at 15%. Currently for sale @ pe of about 7.

Their dividend hung out at 11 cents from 2004-2011, then jumped to 72c, now over $2 in 2013. This yields about 3.4%

This one is kind of like my Deere pick. Everyone hates agg stocks right now. There are many good arguments against agg. Corn prices being at the top of the list.

I like them. I especially like how management is showing so much confidence in themselves with the huge dividend raises. We'll see what happens over the next couple of years. I got in at $88.15 I wouldn't be surprised to make 30% over the next year. I won't spend it yet though.

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Member Avatar mrudolph72 (53.78) Submitted: 10/21/2013 4:18:01 PM : Outperform Start Price: $84.66 AGU Score: -7.97

Beat up AG stock with somewhat stable earnings and growing dividends

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Member Avatar BrentonKJ (25.81) Submitted: 11/5/2012 4:03:00 PM : Outperform Start Price: $93.98 AGU Score: -45.56

Somewhat diversified with the retail business. Getting close to putting in real money.

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Member Avatar katiekeates (< 20) Submitted: 10/24/2012 1:53:50 AM : Outperform Start Price: $101.33 AGU Score: -52.64

Food pricing are high, weather has been getting more variable, fertilizer will be needed to push yields..they are undervalued by 30 -40% currently. Are a smaller size and are profitable.

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Member Avatar nonzerosum (91.66) Submitted: 10/16/2012 10:30:18 AM : Outperform Start Price: $98.57 AGU Score: -45.98

well priced, growing like mad, and fertilizers should do well as arable land continues to decline.

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Member Avatar bIlluminati (30.26) Submitted: 10/1/2012 3:15:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $100.18 AGU Score: -48.48

Good earnings and momentum.

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Member Avatar harrymiller7 (< 20) Submitted: 9/2/2012 4:52:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $93.35 AGU Score: -44.99

this is the best play on food

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Member Avatar phatchips767 (< 20) Submitted: 8/28/2012 2:08:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $91.49 AGU Score: -42.59

albertan company in ag products business in n&s american markets.

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Member Avatar jasnshell (< 20) Submitted: 3/11/2012 3:16:15 PM : Outperform Start Price: $78.69 AGU Score: -30.76

Currently undervalued

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Member Avatar hogdoc (< 20) Submitted: 11/4/2011 1:15:27 PM : Outperform Start Price: $74.01 AGU Score: -37.78

I'd expect this stock to channel below $85.55 until June or July of 2012 where it will begin to breakout.

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Member Avatar 14570fool (< 20) Submitted: 10/11/2011 2:14:30 PM : Outperform Start Price: $69.10 AGU Score: -36.83

single digit forward P/E.
Fertilizer (early food production chain) demand has to rise all over the world.

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Member Avatar leohaas (32.04) Submitted: 9/7/2011 10:45:47 AM : Outperform Start Price: $82.17 AGU Score: -58.36

Just gaming the system: harvested a +7 score, while lowering my cost basis a few dimes.

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Member Avatar thunderhawke23 (44.84) Submitted: 4/5/2011 8:59:20 AM : Outperform Start Price: $90.08 AGU Score: -50.02

Industry is exploding now

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Member Avatar cibient (< 20) Submitted: 3/22/2011 12:44:17 PM : Outperform Start Price: $82.14 AGU Score: -44.48

I had owned AGU and CF before in MRLP. Sold both with trailing stop orders but am looking to get exposure back into fertilizer stocks. According to Yahoo! Finance, AGU has the best PEG ratio at 0.62 and Price/Sales ratio at 1.33.

Stats from MagicDiligence.com:

Results for ticker 'AGU' (Agrium Inc.):
Earnings Yield:   6.7%
MFI Return on Capital:   20.4%

MagicDiligence Research for 'AGU':

Research Available for AGU! (full membership required - upgrade here)

Instant Diligence:

The Earnings Yield of 6.7% is Average.

The MFI Return on Capital of 20.4% is Average.

Near-term Financial Health appears to be Very Good. The current ratio is 1.63.

Calculations:

(for quarter ended 2010-12-31)
Market Cap   =   Stock_Price * Shares
   =   87.58 * 158.00
   =   13837.64

Excess Cash   =   Cash - MAX(0; (Current Liabilities - Current Assets + Cash))
   =   543.00 - MAX(0; (4285.00 - 6994.00 + 543.00))
   =   543.00

Enterprise Value   =   Market Cap + Total Debt - Excess Cash
   =   13837.64 + 2540.00 - 543.00
   =   15834.64

MFI Invested Capital   =   Total Assets - Goodwill - Intangibles - Current Liabilities + Short Term Debt - Excess Cash
   =   12717.00 - 2463.00 - 619.00 - 4285.00 + 422.00 - 543.00
   =   5229.00

Earnings Yield   =   Operating Earnings / Enterprise Value
   =   1066.00 / 15834.64
   =   0.067 (6.7%)

MFI Return on Capital   =   Operating Earnings / MFI Invested Capital
   =   1066.00 / 5229.00
   =   0.204 (20.4%)

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Member Avatar CarolinaMatt (51.06) Submitted: 1/13/2011 12:50:39 PM : Outperform Start Price: $88.62 AGU Score: -53.53

This is a simple macro play with some basic business understanding layered in.

The world demand for food is set to grow rapidly. As HUGE population areas in Asia (read China) continue their shift from a 200 years behind the time technology-wise agrarian society into a modern powerhouse, the previously poor are gradually adding disposable income. First thing bought after climbing out of near poverty is shelter and food. Result is that a huge portion of the world population suddenly becomes a market for food. But here's the thing - many of the best places to grow food are already running near capacity. There will be increased production in North America as prices for food commodities rise, but there will also be a next wave of food production to less ideal growing areas (many within the countries that need the food). The result is the need for better seeds and more stuff (fertilizer, potash, etc.) to improve the growability of lesser farmland. Because of this, I like the macro environment for all things food growing.

But why AGU specifically?

A couple reasons:
1) Despite a huge runup (about 100%) AGU is priced reasonably at about 13X 2011 earnings.
2) Their cost structure - A large portion of their revenue is from nitrogen fertilizer. A key input into making fertilizer is natural gas. Right now, natural gas prices in North America are running about half what they are in other places in the world. This gives AGU a HUGE cost advantage over European and other overseas competitors, and with the volume of shale gas the US is sitting on this is unlikely to change. It is important to understand that while oil is a worldwide market due to its easy portability, natural gas is still very much a regional market. While portable in liquid form, costs and limits to this make natural gas still very much a "where you find is where you have to sell it/use" market.

Note that I think you could also play the same macro story with the big potash suppliers (MOS, POT) or the farm equipment companies (CAT, DE).

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Member Avatar secondo (< 20) Submitted: 1/3/2011 1:26:24 PM : Outperform Start Price: $88.90 AGU Score: -55.27

Solid Company in a promising sector.

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