Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. (NASDAQ:AHGP)

Strong global demand for thermal and metallurgical coal combined with significant restraints on potential supply increases will provide support for higher pricing levels in the years ahead. AHGP's attractive current yield of 6.75% (as of 9/25/08) and potential for significant distribution increases over the next several years provide an attractive risk/reward opportunity. Price target of $31 to $40. Very high coverage ratios for the LP distribution provide additional upside potential.

The numbers were very impressive today in my opinion. If you assume the LP can acheive the 6% - 8% quarter over quater distribution growth that mgmt suggests from now through 2010, then the GP (AHGP) should get at least 9% quarterly distribution growth. I ran a quick DDM and came up with a range of values from $30 - $60 per unit (discounted to today at 10%). I ran a range of terminal values depending on where you think terminal yield will finish up. A 5% terminal yield will get you to $60 and a 10% terminal yield will get you to $30. Either way this stock looks very cheap at $26 (currently yielding about 5.4% at the new rate).

Plus, it looks like there's still some upside should uncommitted coal volumes price higher over the next couple years. Also, very strong operating fundamentals should be a plus too, the tonnage gains look very impressive over the next year to two years. So high prices are locked in, lots of production growth coming, and some more upside to the guidance should future contracts price higher (which seems reasonable given the present spot market).

This stock should be trading in the $30 - $60 range today, depending on a reasonable range of outcomes, in my opinion. I'm interested in others' work too, please share.

Given the price of oil, coal, as dirty as t is, will have to profit. The dirty part should start to become less of a factor as the new technologies for clean burning of coal come on line, which they will because of high cost of oil making the extra expense viable.

Testing out a portfolio of smallish-cap 5-star stocks found using the CAPS screener. All picks have at least 50 allstars backing them, which should be enough to minimize star rating fluctuations. It's been less than a week, but so far so good!

The mining industry is a very good sector to be in right now. Much of the worlds metals that were mined throughout our history are still in use somewhere today. Due to inflation, the metals sector is an excellent sector to be in, due to the fact as the dollar declines, metals such as gold will only increase in value. The nation will always need multiple forms of fuel as the price of oil continues to increase... so coal and uranium will keep looking like better and better investments.

However, on the other side, metals always go through cycles. Starting around three years ago, we began our upward trend. While we will probably continue this upward trend for quite some time with the current market, one must realize there will be a large correction at some point. I would say that the metals/mining stocks will be good for at least a couple years.

Being in the mining industry, I feel quite safe. Copper is doing amazing right now, as is gold and uranium. I feel safe in my position as an invester and an employee, which should say volumes about the status quo of the market.

Just a hunch that the energy market is going to go more towards an old familiar stnad by until the oil proces are lowered in two months.

Testing a portfolio of companies that start with the letter "A".

a good, well managed coal co. with long term reserves, should do very well over the long haul.

0.50

Good-quality stock here...

Alliance Holdings GP LP, a mid-cap growth company in the energy sector, is expected to significantly outperform the market over the next six months with less than average risk.

high yield, strong comp

I don't think this one will blow away the S&P 500, but hopefully it will outshine it. It's been on my WatchList for about 3 weeks; time to move it into my official CAPS portfolio. For the long term, the financials are decent but not great: PEG=1.2; forward P/E=21 (a bit high but right in line for this industry); profit/operating margins at 8.7% and 18%, resp; RoE=40.4%; quarterly Rev growth of (only) 7.8%; EPS growth is anemic at only 0.8%; and Debt/Equity is 62% (the least of its competitors, which includes ACI, Arch Coal Inc.). A big plus is that almost 80% of the stock is held by insiders.

It's the smaller of its competition (an underdog; I like that)

coal is going to the moon, what was the perfect storm for the industry last year, is the perfect setup for a major move this year

A Growth Proposition

Growth stock

Coal prices!