AK Steel Holding Corp (AKS)

washmachine (42.46) Submitted: 11/23/2009 10:04:33 PM : Start Price: $19.16 AKS Score: -3.23

winter

spotpetes (75.32) Submitted: 11/18/2009 3:40:19 PM : Start Price: $18.85 AKS Score: -5.04

high p/e, low demand

scoobamang (88.43) Submitted: 9/4/2009 3:18:10 AM : Start Price: $19.98 AKS Score: +11.32

Crappy company, a lot of debt, a lot of cash too but they will burn through it at the current rate, price to book too high, nobody is building anything so their consistent price-raises on their products will only discourage people from buying from them.

TRGoodvsEvil (< 20) Submitted: 7/3/2009 8:25:48 PM : Start Price: $17.36 AKS Score: +11.15

#10 Worst Toxic Polluter (http://www.peri.umass.edu/toxic100_index/)

yellowear (72.50) Submitted: 5/10/2009 12:21:48 PM : Start Price: $8.45 AKS Score: -96.49

AKS is weigh overpriced based on a 5X Price/Cash Flow ratio above industry average. More negative news on the pension under funding will bring this stock down from its spring high. With no P/E how can this stock go up from 14??? Too many call options have been sold @ $15 to see any further price movement to the upside.

dexion10 (29.63) Submitted: 4/9/2009 10:16:40 AM : Start Price: $9.21 AKS Score: -81.94

steel co has 2B underfunded pension and negative cash flow projected this year

Blog3 (< 20) Submitted: 12/24/2008 12:42:47 PM : Start Price: $8.24 AKS Score: -108.67

This stock is not going anywhere until the housing and construction market picks up which may not be for a long while.

supercoffee (83.99) Submitted: 7/31/2008 4:04:56 PM : Start Price: $61.59 AKS Score: +57.36

SOMEONE GOING TO BUY THIS COMPANY

payton3499 (21.80) Submitted: 4/23/2008 7:41:24 PM : Start Price: $64.18 AKS Score: +52.45

Way overpriced this stock has been on a killer run and the sun will not shine anymore. $55 by June

johnwilliam1 (< 20) Submitted: 3/7/2008 2:08:27 AM : Start Price: $52.83 AKS Score: +51.08

Spot market prices for steel as a commodity are good but AKS has a lot of headwind to their margins and cash position which does not justify premium to Nucor and industry average (definately not 14x 2008E):

40% auto exposure and 25% consumer/builder exposure with roughly 70% on year long contracts will lead to shrinking gross margin in a business with industry lagging margin to begin with (US based compliance costs with union workforce and one of the few mills with no recent bankruptcy.) Margin on spot market sales will be lower than normal because of drastically higher transport costs. Further margin erosion from 65% increases in iron ore prices across the industry from Vale and BHP. In addition, there will be soaring coking coal prices because of the floods in Bowen Basin and moratorium on China coking coal exports. Not to mention the company also buys a lot of carbon steel on the open market for some of their union "value-add" shops. Recent upgrade to EAF will increase electrical steel output and efficiency but the tonnage of shipments has been shrinking for 3 yrs

Expect the company to draw down its cash heavily over the next year. Recent settlement with retirees will suck at least $500 million of cash out the company this year (90% in 1Q08) with at least another $150 million needed in '08 for underfunded pension catch-ups. The pension will have large "corridor" charge in 4Q08 because of less than expected returns in pension accounts. >2x normal CapEx in the pipeline (at least $200 million) for 2008. During a "good" margin year, FCF was roughly $800 million.

Disclosure: I currently have no position in AKS.

rationalexchange (< 20) Submitted: 2/7/2008 12:33:02 PM : Start Price: $43.00 AKS Score: +40.13

Now that the Chinese stock market is in tune again with New York and that it is going down, oil and metals won't be able to keep moving higher.

vagan (< 20) Submitted: 4/17/2007 11:22:30 AM : Start Price: $27.21 AKS Score: +6.83

This stock is currently overpriced, speculating on the steel market. As soon as there is a downtick in the steel market, this stock will take a big hit.