Allied Capital Corp (ALD)

Very cheap on a P/B and EV/Sales basis. It's a dog with fleas, it's probably as bad as it'll get.

Between restructuring their debt, the pending end to the recession, and the short memory of Americans, this company will again regain it's strength. Businesses will forget about the trying times of the last 2 years, and will restart production at high levels. To do so, they are going to need capital.

They marked assets down aggressively - soone they will begin to mark assets back up.

the stock has taken an extreme beating for one blip in it's track record. could be a great buying opportunity.

Company is a 6 1/2 bagger with great dividend history. Picking up this stock at 3.84 gives a projected dividend of 60%.

REAL WORLD INFO: I own 200 shares purchased at 2.80.

It has a diversified portfolio of mostly senior debt positions, is cash flow positive, is buying back its public debt at one-third its par value, and is selling at less than 50% of its written down book value.

Even though the track record lately has been below par, I think the underlying business model will succeed

Low PE, insider buying. Seems like a 50% bet to be a multibagger. MTM changes will also help longer term.

Close today at $1.88, oversold with a 50% upside, an easy double, beyond that... hold longer (if desired) for more growth and dividends to come in 2010. Enterprise value around $12.42. Is having problems maintaining the 200% covenants on debt, but is NOT having problems making payments.
A sleeping bull. When will this sleeping bull run?

$5 a share

It is earning a nice profit and will pay a good dividend again; It just needs to get over a couple of man-made roadblocks it ran into. Old fashioned debt covenants and mark to market accounting. They didn't realize when the debt covenants were established that they were going to have M2M thrust upon them. Once they resolve this issue of covenant violation they can get back to paying a dividend. Next recession they will hopefully have FASB 159 in effect so M2M won't have such a devistating effect.

This company has an extreme amount of upside.I also took notice to the insiders accumulating shares.There are alot of positives to be said about this company.I do not feel that it is as bad as some feel that it is.There is a lot of silver in these gray clouds.It's a steal at 1.70

Mark-to-Market, Up-Tick rules changes benefit ALD.

Like ACAS, Allied Capital suffers from mark to market accounting, and from covenant default. ALD, however, is current on cash payments to lenders, and is a prodigious cash producer. A careful overview shows the company could instantly cure its current covenant default by transferring or selling notes it holds from the sale of various companies. Management insists it wants a comprehenisve overhaul of its debt arrangements, probably fearing further unrealized losses if it is forced to write down the value of its holdings further. Both ALD and ACAS suffer also from the rampant fear loose in the marketplace and from cavalier trreatment from a certain percentage of the analysts and rating agencies supposedly tracking the companies. Twenty three year olds really don't run the earth. They just think they do. Hubris is a wonderful thing.

Cortero

ALD way oversold

Presidents stimulus plan will take hold and allow for short term gain

An extremely well managed company, Allied has its arms around the very engine that will help propel this country out of its current doldrums and back into a growth oriented future. It is a Business Development Company of the highest order. I believe it will do very well over every time frame, Cramer notwithstanding. It's new dividend policy of not more than $.20 per quarter assures a stock price target of at least $8 near term while carefully protecting its financial strength.

There isn't a bank on the planet that wouldn't love to have its balance sheet and cash flow generation potential.

Will show good gains over the next few months

Cheap, I like ACAS better