Alon USA Energy, Inc. (ALJ)
The Company and its subsidiaries engage in the business of refining and marketing of petroleum products, in the South Central, Southwestern and Western regions of the United States.
Recs
capitanKaboom
(44.87)
Submitted: 11/17/2009 2:45:20 PM :
Start Price:
$7.21
ALJ Score:
-1.69
screen % ab 52wklow
Recs
tthwebster
(25.50)
Submitted: 10/30/2009 8:36:43 PM :
Start Price:
$8.40
ALJ Score:
-19.34
I say cheaper oil through end of year course... whadaIno
Recs
DaveOfDukeIPO
(72.56)
Submitted: 9/28/2009 12:58:36 AM :
Start Price:
$10.00
ALJ Score:
-32.63
Gasoline maker,,,,,buys barrels of oils then converts to gasoline...Cheaper oil makes gasoline stocks goes up,up,up,up.
Recs
nqian96
(96.66)
Submitted: 8/21/2009 2:33:24 PM :
Start Price:
$10.16
ALJ Score:
-48.27
I will keep this cyclic company in my portfolio forever -- either go bankrupt, or become a stable company. The management I believe is a good one. The bankruptcy is pretty remote. The economics of the industry is lousy. This generates a tremendous opportunity for average down play. The recipe: buy at any price when it is down 40-50% from its near term high with 1/3 of intended investment. Average down if you can each time it is down another 10-20% from your purchase with your addition 1/3. And wait. Get out with 20% gain within a few month. Repeat.
Recs
gmxFuzzyKittens
(< 20)
Submitted: 6/3/2009 1:06:57 PM :
Start Price:
$12.33
ALJ Score:
-61.20
This company has terrible assets and will be among the first wave of refiners to merge/go bankrupt when the next refining crunch hits. That said, some idiots will come along and pop this thing up. Only one paw mildly up--I wouldn't buy this for even the nasty tomcat across the street.
Recs
teddabar
(< 20)
Submitted: 3/12/2009 7:35:43 PM :
Start Price:
$12.61
ALJ Score:
-90.86
oil is liquid gold
Recs
leohaas
(99.26)
Submitted: 3/11/2009 12:04:03 PM :
Start Price:
$11.99
ALJ Score:
-94.02
Gaming the system again; harvesting a score of +10.66, while lowering my cost basis from $12.25 to just under $12.
Recs
Zboots
(32.82)
Submitted: 9/24/2008 7:51:32 PM :
Start Price:
$15.13
ALJ Score:
-46.98
I watched and waited and watched and waited - pretty soon I *coulda* made a double....
ALJ will have a rocky, turbulent climb but climb it will and I can't decide if I should load up or add more to CHK at this time.
Recs
mikebrown81435
(< 20)
Submitted: 9/16/2008 9:59:01 PM :
Start Price:
$14.53
ALJ Score:
+45.36
It looks like ALJ has had negative gross margin for 4Q07, 1Q08, and 2Q08. This is including the original Big Spring refinery as well as the California refineries. The Big Spring refinery was in full operation during 4Q07 and for 1/2 of 1Q08. I don't believe any of their peers had negative gross margin during these periods.
The California refineries apparently do not make money and will have difficulty doing so unless ALJ installs significant additional refinery equipment several years from now.
When they say they have positive asphalt margins, it looks like that is over and above an internal transfer price and that it is really a loss compared to the price they pay for the crude input.
The Krotz Springs refinery cannot meet the specifications for on road diesel and again significant additional refinery equipment would have to be installed over the next few years to enable it to make on road diesel fuel that meets the current U.S. specs.
ALJ has taken on significant debt in the last year at relatively high (junk bond type) rates.
It looks like ALJ will have to incur significant new debt over the next few years at a time when the capital and debt markets have been strained.
Recs
eberline
(< 20)
Submitted: 9/7/2008 12:05:49 PM :
Start Price:
$12.38
ALJ Score:
-30.26
Profit are starting to roll in.
Recs
Recs
bluedome
(67.72)
Submitted: 8/5/2008 3:06:52 PM :
Start Price:
$7.95
ALJ Score:
+2.70
Someday the refiners will see good times again. Most likely the stock will triple when that occurs.
Recs
Lordrobot
(92.43)
Submitted: 8/5/2008 6:58:07 AM :
Start Price:
$7.89
ALJ Score:
+2.11
ALJ as other refiners has been way oversold. Recent vlo purchase fits in line with overall goal. This is an asphalt producer which is a traditional means by which gov. stimulate economies in a recession.
With hedge fund speculators getting crushed in the oil futures markets I would suspect oil to drop back down to about 80. this would improve margins.
I am not certain where the bottom is on this stock. But have to take a small position presently and will increase if it goes lower. My strategy is to accumulate shares on good companies that are beaten down. This is a good company and has been sold off by institutional elephants that had to liquidate for reasons unrelated to this company.
My horizon is always three years or more with the basic idea that a stock can triple or quad during that time frame. ALJ meets my criteria.
Recs
alexxlea
(79.74)
Submitted: 7/30/2008 3:57:42 PM :
Start Price:
$8.61
ALJ Score:
-3.94
Seems to be a marathon runner.
Recs
blastman911
(45.97)
Submitted: 7/8/2008 11:55:44 PM :
Start Price:
$10.78
ALJ Score:
-21.89
With oil leveling off, it should be time for Alon USA to shine.
Recs
JTHokie
(89.50)
Submitted: 6/23/2008 11:03:09 AM :
Start Price:
$12.42
ALJ Score:
-28.05
Has been beaten up, but will bounce back after the oil speculation dies down.
Recs
Liudvikas
(99.29)
Submitted: 6/18/2008 11:48:00 AM :
Start Price:
$13.55
ALJ Score:
-31.25
refinery value pick
Recs
Kannamma
(37.94)
Submitted: 6/2/2008 2:56:07 PM :
Start Price:
$16.56
ALJ Score:
-39.00
It's bottomed out. Should be an upside from here
Recs
ModernViking
(< 20)
Submitted: 5/28/2008 12:09:35 AM :
Start Price:
$14.23
ALJ Score:
-31.37
Bush will kiss sufficient Saudi ass between now and November to prompt them to lower the price of oil which the McCain campaign will spin as a successful implementation of the PNAC agenda. That's the backstory.
As it concerns ALJ, refinery stocks will rise in response to the correction in oil.
Recs
TMFStockpick08
(< 20)
Submitted: 5/27/2008 9:40:39 AM :
Start Price:
$14.38
ALJ Score:
-32.76
This stock was picked by TMFNato for the 2008 Stockpicking Contest.
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