Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)

acquisition target for Continental Airlines or Southwest Airlines

Alaska has guaranteed contracts with mail service.

Over-valued airline.

Part of my short airline Chapter 11 basket trade.

This company is one of 62 listed on the BetterInvesting Growth Screen in January 2008. It met 4 criteria: it is projected by Value Line to double earnings in the next five years, has actually doubled earnings in the past 5 years, is selling at price-earnings multiples (P/E’s) that are 110 percent or less of Value Line’s projected earnings growth rate and has a safety rating of average or better. It was listed in the March 2008 BetterInvesting magazine.

The airline has huge potential, and when considering the history, Alaska always comes out on top.

Best market penetration dominance of any regional airline; and its the west coast. Good service and customer loyalty.

This a solidly run company. The drop in oil prices will only benefit the bottom line from here on in. I predict a bottom has formed and will perform well from here. (The technical indicators also agree.)

recommended by ValueLine Select

Airlines are the new whipping boy.

oil's too pricey. shorting airlines for summer (a gallon of gas will be $5 by the end of summer).

1 3-6-9.

I am disgruntled with airline stocks.

Going to, from, or especially within the state of Alaska, ALK controls just about all air traffic. And what they can't handle, their partner airlines (PenAir and Era Aviation) do. They don't have a great on-time record, but given that most of the villages they serve don't have roads, that's hardly going to erode their popularity.

What's more, Alaska Airlines miles are practically a form of currency in Alaska. Everybody from hotels to the phone company to carpet cleaners give away Alaska airlines miles. If that doesn't breed brand loyalty, I don't know what does.

Oh, and did I mention that they're an airline with positive income from continuing operations and positive operating cash flow?

boiseidfool's tip on BetterInvesting 5/26/08 Growth Screen in January 2008.

Okay, so this one may be pushing the envelope just a little farther than most would, given what our fuel prices have done in the past month. But with new routes being secured to destinations no one else wants to venture, they'll open themselves up to gain more than just passengers. Their new contract charter flights will strengthen relations far more than anyone could imagine. It's going to take a little while, but before we know it, 24 hour customer service lines will be necessary for this company.

I have purchased ALK :-

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=alk&.yficrumb=%2FQnGSSWfR3m...

Industry: airline
EPS = 0.65
EPS EST 1yr = 2.634 2yr = 3.817
EPS EST Q1 = 0.248 Q2 = -0.482
PE = 42.3 Industry 5.9
PB = 1.25 Industry 1.2
PS = 0.29 Industry 0.2
P/CF = 4.2 industry 3.4
P/FCF = 10.5 Industry 4.3
Yield 0.0 Industry 0.0
Gross profit margin = 51.7 Industry 30.0
Operating margin = 3.2 Industry -1.1
Net Profit Margin = 0.7 Industry -0.1
ROA = 0.5 Industry -0.1
ROE = 3.2 Industry 15.7
Insider ownership = 0.3
Greenblatt ROC = 4.35
Greenblatt Earnings Yield = 7.40
PosFCF generic % free cash flow yield 9.49%***
Passes 13 of 17 of Mike Klein's metrics
MaxPrice = 216.68 Discount 87%**
Metrics from qtr ending 9/30/2009
Caps rank 1
http://caps.fool.com/Ticker/ALK.aspx
MC score 247

All good enough for my money. I only suggest stocks that I own !

(See posts 388/584/665/760/1051/1807/2213/3546/3755/4046/4208/4225/4345/4573/4818/5241/5242/5310/5461/5579/
5169/7651 on 'Investment Analysis Clubs / Dynamic Value Investing ' board for extra due diligence applied ). **MaxPrice is a generic version of Mike Klein's Maxprice and ROC and Earnings yields are generic versions of Greenblatt's metrics. *** PosFCF generic % free cash flow yield taken from AAII and posts 5248 and 5253

See 'Investment Analysis Clubs / Dynamic Value Investing' board and my CAPS profile for further excellent companies selling at a discount to Maxprice with excellent current metrics. CAPS only shows my selections over 100Mill (unfortunately due to restricted lower market cap applied by MF CAPS).

As stated on the 'Investment Analysis Clubs /Dynamic Value Investing' board my aim is to obtain up to 50% returns p.a. as Buffett stated he could obtain (3 times) recently. A very difficult task but you can follow along with my buys and sells on my CAPS page, where I put my money where my mouth is . If I perform well I hope you can benefit. If not , feel free to ignore my comments. CAPS allows each and everyone of us to be clinically judged on our stock picking abilities over the LONG TERM.

Please always do your own due diligence before investing.

Manucastle :o)

Others in alaska are starting to give up on the market. UAUA has gone to a seasonal only service to ANC. I think that ALK has beated most of the market in the pac northwest and will continue to be a steady force there and in california.

technicals seem to indicate it's in a downtrend--duration more of a guess--airlines as a sector is beaten up--p/e too high for an airline